It was an interesting Monday with one pick hinging on Juan Soto's availability, only for Soto to make the lineup but Aaron Judge to get the night off.
Miraculously, that pick still hit — as did our only other play of the day. While it's easier to pick up a sweep on only two bets, it was still a nice way to start the week.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Tuesday, June 11, so let's dive in.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Tuesday, June 11
Nationals vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Kenta Maeda
Most of the value on this one is based on the Nationals. They're facing Kenta Maeda, who has an overall ERA over six and slightly better — but still bad — leading indicators that range from the high fours to high fives.
His xFIP the first time through the order is over five — slightly higher than his overall mark in that category. He also left his last start after just two pitches with an abdominal issue, so there could be some lingering health issues pitching six days later.
The Tigers aren't drawing totally dead here either, as Mitchell Parker — while better overall — also has a first-time through-the-order xFIP higher than his total mark.
Cubs vs. Rays
Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon vs. Zach Eflin
Both of these pitchers typify what my NRFI model is built to catch. They're both relatively mediocre overall, but the scoring they do allow tends to come later in the game.
Both own xFIP numbers that drop well over a run when looking at their splits the first time through the order, with Taillon moving to 3.10 and Eflin coming in at 2.47.
With neither offense being especially top-heavy and a total of just 7.5, this is a pretty straightforward value.
Yankees vs. Royals
Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman vs. Brady Singer
Depending on your metric of choice, the two starting pitchers in this game have been somewhere between slightly and extremely lucky this season.
Stroman's ERA comes in at 3.02, but his underlying metrics are all mid-four or above. Singer has a 2.76 ERA but 4.50 xERA, with his other indicators ranging between those two marks.
They've also both been slightly worse their first time through the order based on xFIP, so the 9.5 runs we're implied for are likely to come early.
Then there's the matter of the Yankees' lineup.
Yesterday, they got Juan Soto back but were without Aaron Judge, among other regulars. In a perfect world, both Judge and Soto are in action tonight, though at the current price, I'd still take this bet as long as we have one of the two.
