We took yesterday off in the MLB NRFI department for Mother's Day after a rough ending to the week, but we're back after it on Monday. It's a new week, and the NRFI & YRFI model has been updated with fresh data, so let's get back to our winning ways.
We've got three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and predictions for Monday, May 13.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds: Monday Model Picks & Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs. Jose Berrios
This game features two starters with sub-3.00 ERA in Cy Young-candidate Corbin Burnes and Jose Berrios. Burnes has underlying stats that support his ERA, and a solid 3.06 xFIP his first time through the order.
Berrios isn't quite as good, with his xFIP and xERA numbers well above his ERA this year. However, he too has been excellent early in games, with his best xFIP coming the first trip through the order.
While this game being in Baltimore makes me slightly less confident in the pick due to the hitter-friendly environs, I still expect the bulk of the scoring to come later once these starters begin to tire.
Starting Pitchers: Sixto Sanchez vs. Matt Manning
The Tigers continue to be frustrating to project for NRFIs, thanks to their lack of a consistent batting order. However, they're implied for nearly five runs tonight against the Marlins and starter Sixto Sanchez.
Sanchez has an 8.44 ERA as a starter (with some of his appearances coming in relief), and a ridiculous 14.54 ERA his first time through the order. While he's not that bad, his xFIP in that situation is still over 5.00.
I also like the full game YRFI at -115 at ESPNBet, but the Marlins struggling offense isn't providing much of the value.
If you prefer to wait until the Tigers lineup is confirmed, look for any combination of Riley Greene, Mark Canha, Wenceel Perez, and Kerry Carpenter in the top three (ideally four) spots for Detroit. All four players are well above-average hitters this year, while the rest of the Tigers lineup is considerably worse.
As always, I'm betting a half-unit on the team-specific prop.
Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez vs. Sean Manaea
Like our earlier NRFI, we have an eight-run total and two pitchers with ERAs in the low threes. Both pitchers have also been better early in games, with Sanchez's ERA dipping to 2.77 and Manaea's an excellent 1.15.
As an added bonus, the Mets lineup is considerably worse against left-handed pitching, while the Phillies are roughly the same — most teams hit lefties considerably better — for this lefty on lefty matchup.
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