We had a nice 2-1 day on Wednesday, returning a full unit of profit and bringing the season total up over 38 units. That's a new high for the year, but hopefully one we'll keep improving on over the coming days.
I have 3.5 MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Wednesday, June 12, so let's dive in.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Wednesday, June 12
Nationals vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin vs. Reese Olson
We missed the YRFI in this game yesterday and are going in a different direction today. The change is largely due to better pitchers taking the mound for both teams.
Olson has been a revelation for the Tigers, with a 3.43 ERA and similar underlying numbers in 2024. His xFIP drops even further the first time through the order, down to 2.78.
It's a similar story for fellow sophomore big-leaguer Jake Irvin, who has a 3.12 overall ERA that dips to 2.25 his first time through the order, with a similar — though less dramatic — decrease to his xFIP.
With solid early-game numbers and these offenses ranking 22nd and 23rd against right-handed pitching, we have enough to take the NRFI. However, I wouldn't go past the -130 line available at FanDuel.
Guardians vs. Reds
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Nick Lodolo
There are a few different ways to approach this game, but the general thesis is that Cleveland is considerably more likely to score in the first inning than Cincinnati.
One option is the Guardians two-way moneyline — it voids if the teams tie — which is available at -105. I prefer risking a half-unit on the bigger swing, though.
The Guardians have a 117 wRC+ as a team against lefties, and they're taking on Nick Lodolo whose ERA balloons from 2.92 overall to 4.50 his first time through the order.
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has a 3.73 overall ERA, but it dips to 1.2 early in games.
I have the fair value on the parlay of Cleveland YRFI and Cincinnati NRFI at +310. With this bet, though, we can have both teams score as long as Cleveland scores more.
Remember, keep this one to a half-unit, which still is enough for a large return.
White Sox vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Jonathan Cannon vs. Bryce Miller
The 7.5-run total in this game is juiced to the under, and we could see it finish at 7 by the time a pitch is thrown. That's the primary driver of the NRFI here, as it's hard to have a run in the first inning if you don't have many runs at all.
Chicago's offense is terrible, flip-flopping with the Rockies for the worst wRC+ against righties on a frequent basis. They're very unlikely to get anything here against Bryce Miller, who has a 2.43 ERA his first time through the order.
The Mariners' side is slightly riskier due to their superior offense, but they don't have any elite hitters in their first three. The best wRC+ belongs to Josh Rojas at 114, and the team is slightly below average overall against righties.
That's why I'm OK with taking the risk on Jonathan Cannon. Through four big-league starts, he has a 5.94 ERA but a 3.33 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA. His xFIP drops all the way down to 2.81 his first time through the order, so he should be able to work a clean inning or two here.
Rangers vs. Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray vs. Walker Buehler
I based my projections for this game around Jon Gray starting for the Rangers. He's the probable starter in our models, and it's his turn in the rotation. However, sportsbooks are showing "TBD" for the Rangers, so keep an eye on the situation.
With that said, pivoting away from Gray likely only helps this bet. Gray has a 2.12 ERA (though 3.45 xFIP) overall. He's been slightly worse the first time through the order but would probably be replaced by an even worse option.
Even with Gray's numbers, the Dodgers project well here, as they have three of the top-10 hitters in baseball getting guaranteed at-bats in the first inning. Plus, cleanup man Will Smith ranks 16th overall, so it's a dangerous top of the lineup.
Add to that the Rangers' chances of scoring on Buehler, which are fairly high given his 5.40 ERA the first time through the order, and we've got a solid bet.
