While it wasn't anything to write home about at 2-1, we booked a slight profit yesterday on a high scoring day of baseball.
Let's hope that's the start of another solid run.
I have four MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Friday, June 7.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: 4 Friday Picks & Predictions
Twins vs. Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan vs. Mitch Keller
I've gone back and forth on this one all morning while watching the line at FanDuel continue to creep higher and higher. Now at +116, it's too good to pass up, though a half-unit bet would make sense, given that I'm projecting this as a coin flip.
Twins starter Joe Ryan has been great this year, with a 3.38 ERA and even better underlying numbers. However, his ERA is a full run higher the first time through the order.
Keller has a similar overall ERA at 3.42, but his ERA predictors range from half a run to a full run higher.
Between the two, this tells us that Keller is due for some general regression, and Ryan is likely to give up his runs earlier rather than later.
That's enough considering the juicy line we're getting.
Braves vs. Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Jake Irvin
I have an almost instinctual aversion to Braves NRFIs, but in the post-Ronald Acuna Jr. world, that fear is probably unfounded. Atlanta is a barely above-average team against right-handed pitching, with a relatively balanced lineup.
Nationals starter Jake Irvin has also been excellent this season, with a 3.39 ERA and 3.46 xFIP overall — and both numbers drop considerably his first time through the order.
I'm not super worried about Washington against Chris Sale, given its 27th-ranked offense against lefties and Sale's 2.46 xFIP on the season.
That makes this a play, but I wouldn't pay much more juice than the current lines.
Reds vs. Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Justin Steele vs. Nick Lodolo
Sportsbooks are so committed to pricing up NRFIs that we're getting a plus-money line on the YRFI in a game with a nine-run total.
Absent any other information that's probably enough to bet it blindly.
There's other reasons to like it, though. The Reds' wRC+, as a team, jumps considerably against lefties, and that's the matchup they have tonight.
Chicago is slightly worse against southpaws, but Nick Lodolo has a 5.00 ERA his first time through the order.
We also have favorable weather for hitters and the best home run park in baseball, so this one is a steal at plus-money.
Astros vs. Angels
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Griffin Canning
Even without Kyle Tucker, the Astros' lineup features three hitters among their first four bats with wRC+ numbers of 125 or above.
They also get to face Griffin Canning, who has a 4.69 ERA that jumps to 6.57 his first time through the order.
They're driving the bulk of this projection, but I don't think the Angels are drawing dead either. They're a top-three offense against lefties and are taking on southpaw Framber Valdez today. Valdez has a 3.00 ERA his first time through the order, so he's not especially likely to give up a run, but it wouldn't be unheard of.
If you can get the even-money lines at BetMGM or BetRivers, that's how I'd play this one.
Otherwise, the Astros' first-inning moneyline (+275 at Caesars) is also a solid option.
