Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +8152 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals
Athletics vs. Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET | Opposing starter: JP Sears (LHP)
JP Sears is an average big league pitcher with excellent command, but his biggest issue is one to capitalize on in the home run market. Sears’ barrel rate is 12.7%, which falls in the bottom 3% of all pitchers.
While the left-hander hasn’t given up a home run over his last two starts, he had given up six in the three prior. Sears’ ground ball rate has dropped over 10% this season — it now sits at 27.2 — which has consequently led to more home runs.
I am targeting Willson Contreras against Sears here. Contreras has been the second-best Cardinal against left-handed pitching (140 wRC+, .259 ISO), hitting for more power than both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
His average jumps up nearly 50 points against southpaws and his OPS sits just shy of .900. While he has just four home runs, 56% of all his hits against lefties have gone for extra bases.
He has continued to be red hot in August, too, hitting .355 over the last 15 days with a pair of home runs. But the biggest key for me has been the slow increase in fly ball and hard-hit rate.
Contreras is beginning to lift the ball more and with more power. That should translate to more home runs or at the minimum a double in the gap. Sears isn’t a plus-strikeout pitcher, and Contreras should capitalize on the southpaw’s issues with the long ball.
Contreras is +340 at FanDuel.
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
Angels vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET | Opposing starter: Patrick Sandoval (LHP)
Another player who has struggled over the last month but is a great buy-low candidate comes from the AL West-leading Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia.
Over the last 30 days, Garcia is hitting just .229 — he does have an .811 OPS — with 30 strikeouts in 83 at-bats. When looking at his rolling graphs for hard-hit and fly ball rate, you can see the sharp decline amid his struggles. But about 15 games ago, you can see a slow change for the better.
While the production hasn’t followed, Garcia’s exit velocity is increasing back to normal and his fly ball rate is nearing 50% again. Garcia already ranks in the top 5% of all hitters in max exit velocity, barrel rate and xSLG, so it’s no secret the damage he can do.
In a plus matchup on Monday, I like taking a stab with Garcia. He is one of the best Rangers against left-handed pitching from a power perspective (.226 ISO) and has an excellent 141 wRC+.
Patrick Sandoval takes the mound for the Angels, and while he has been above-average in barrels allowed, his strikeout rate has dropped below 20% and the southpaw has become more of a pitch-to-contact hurler.
Sandoval has given up a home run in three of his last four starts and has struggled with the long ball out of the All-Star break a lot more than in the first half of the season. Sandoval has a 1.88 ERA in the second half, a number that should negatively regress given his underlying metrics.
Sandoval’s xERA and xFIP both sit a half-run higher than actual, and his xBA sits at his worst since 2020.
Take a stab at Garcia, who is +400 at FanDuel.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET | Opposing starter: Chris Flexen (RHP)
Corbin Carroll has been in a huge slump since the calendar turned to August, but I think this is the perfect opportunity to buy low on the rookie outfielder. While he hasn’t hit a home run in nearly a month, he has hit for extra bases in each of his last two games.
And as you look at his rolling graphs for hard-hit and fly balls, it seems like a stray rise back to where he was midseason is on the horizon. Tack on the fact that he now heads to Coors Field, where the balls should fly in a plus matchup against Chris Flexen, and I like taking a stab on Carroll here.
Flexen’s fall-off has been swift. He currently ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in strikeout rate, xBA and xSLG. His barrel rate has crept toward 10% and his hard-hit rate is the lowest since 2018, when he threw just 6 1/3 innings.
Since joining the Rockies, he has given up two home runs in each of his three starts. The crazy part? Only one of those games has been in Coors. The season is lost for Colorado, so we could see another 4-5 innings out of Flexen, which should give Carroll two or three at-bats to do some damage.
Despite his slump, Carroll remains the best Diamondback against right-handed pitching (144 wRC+, .297 ISO). More than half of his hits have gone for extra bases, including 19 home runs. In other words, 23.5% of his hits against righties have left the park.
Buy low on Carroll as he heads to hitter-friendly Coors. He still ranks in the top 10% of all hitters in max exit velocity and is a plus hitter across the board in nearly every metric. I expect him to do some damage here on Monday night.
Right now, Carroll is +360 at DraftKings but is not widely available across the sportsbooks. Be sure to shop around as lines become more available.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, August 14
- Willson Contreras (+340)
- Adolis Garcia (+400)
- Corbin Carroll (+370)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at Bet365 comes in at $815.20.
