Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full MLB slate is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remain a constant.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money, and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player's over 1.5 HRR or TBs (.5u) and HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +18369 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
Angels vs. Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Tyler Anderson (LHP)
It’s been a relatively slow start to the season for Bryan Reynolds, as the Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled at the plate in general.
Prior to their last series against the Colorado Rockies, the Pirates had lost 13-of-16, scoring more than two runs just four times. But what better way to break out of a slump than to face Colorado?
Reynolds ended the series on Sunday with a pair of extra-base hits, as Pittsburgh took two out of three. Now, Reynolds and Co. welcomes in the Los Angeles Angels and Tyler Anderson on Monday night.
The time to back Reynolds is against southpaws, when he hits .341 with an OPS just shy of 1.000.
Anderson is a walking negative regression. Through six starts, the lefty has a 2.23 ERA. But expected metrics sit nearly 2.5 runs higher than expected (4.77). His barrel rate has jumped above double digits, which is an issue for a pitcher who doesn't force many ground balls, nor strike batters out.
In his last four starts, Anderson has given up five home runs.
Three of Reynolds’ four home runs have come against left-handed pitching, and nearly 30% of his hits against southpaws have gone for extra bases. In general, he has a 183 wRC+ and a career-best .244 isolated power against southpaws through the opening month and a half.
For what it’s worth, Reynolds is also 2-for-3 with a home run against Anderson. It's a small sample size, but look to back Reynolds against lefties.
The Pick: 0.5u on Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120, BetMGM) · 0.1u on HR (+630, FanDuel)
J.D. Martinez, New York Mets
Mets vs. Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Kyle Gibson (RHP)
The Mets offense needs life, and amid Pete Alonso’s notorious slump, I believe J.D. Martinez is the player to back on Monday night.
Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he has been far from spectacular. The 36-year-old has an xERA of 5.58 — the worst of his career — and is getting hit much harder (11.1 barrel rate) than normal.
The right-hander has a deep arsenal, but his velocity continues to drop with age, making him all the more susceptible. He does attack the bottom of the zone and force plenty of groundballs, but that hasn’t stopped him from allowing six home runs across six starts this season.
As for Martinez, despite hitting in the middle of the order, he has just one RBI — which came in his Mets debut against the Cardinals, ironically. Martinez has a base hit in all but one game this season, though.
It’s been a limited sample size, but in his at-bats, Martinez has a near-50% sweet-spot rate and has barreled 15.8% of balls. He's still crushing the baseball and putting in good at-bats, even with the rising strikeout rate.
The good news is that Gibson is not an overpowering pitcher and has a sub-20 strikeout rate.
The two have a long-standing history with Martinez logging 40 total plate appearances against Gibson. He does have a pair of home runs and is hitting .294 with a .900 OPS.
In what should be a higher-scoring game, look for Martinez to finally scratch across his second RBI and possibly his first-ever Mets home run.
The Pick: 0.5u on Martinez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110, BetMGM) · 0.1u on HR (+475, BetMGM)
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Marlins vs. Dodgers, 6:40 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Roddery Munoz (RHP)
The Dodgers have kicked it into high gear since losing 5-of-6 in mid-April and have finally begun to look like the 100-plus win team everyone expected.
Fresh off a sweep of Atlanta, thanks in large part to Shohei Ohtani’s hot bat, L.A. welcomes in the Miami Marlins and rookie Roddery Munoz.
Ohtani doesn’t carry much value heading into tonight’s game, mostly because his dominance is inflating the numbers across the board. It’s far more likely Munoz and others will pitch around the lefty slugger to face Freddie Freeman.
Freeman has struggled relative to his last couple of seasons — his xBA down from .323 to .298 — and he has just two home runs over a month in.
But that shouldn’t take away from the lefty’s ceiling. He's in the 100th percentile in sweet-spot percentage and still ranks in the top 10% of all hitters in xBA.
We've seen a gradual increase across the board in Freeman’s rolling fly-ball and hard-hit rate graphs over the last couple of weeks as well, leading me to buy him against the rookie Munoz.
Freeman is a hit machine and is batting .356 with a 1.028 OPS against right-handed pitching. Both of his home runs have come against righties, and he owns a 42.3% extra-base hit rate.
That brings me to the 24-year-old Munoz. The right-hander has made two starts in the bigs amid the Marlins’ injuries to its pitching staff, both of which have been relatively impressive. Munoz has thrown 11 innings of three-run ball, allowing just five hits while striking out 14.
I think this is the game where we start to see some regression, though, given L.A.'s bats. Munoz gave up a pair of solo shots in his debut to Chicago, and before getting called up, had been crushed at Triple-A (8.62 ERA). He had given up four home runs across 15.2 innings, too.
Freeman is always a threat to get on base, and I believe the home runs are going to come soon enough. Look for the veteran to jump all over the rookie behind the padding that is Mookie Betts and Ohtani in the 1-2 spot of the order.
The Pick: 0.5u on Freeman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-155, BetMGM) · 0.1u on HR (+450, BetMGM)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, May 6
- Bryan Reynolds
- JD Martinez
- Freddie Freeman
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,836.90.
