Wednesday's weather is hot across the board.
That means we're due to heat up as well, and I've got some bangers that will help us get July off to a hot start.
Read on for my 5 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top Home Run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12:35 PM | |
| 1:35 PM | |
| 2:20 PM | |
| 3:07 PM | |
| 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
White Sox vs. Orioles MLB Home Run Pick
Pete Alonso
Home Run
This matchup is fantastic, and these odds aren't low enough on Big Meat Pete. The matchup vs. Noah Schultz is great. Schultz hasn't allowed a ton of bombs this season, but he grades out as a pitcher with large splits and a great matchup for righty power.
The weather should be great for hitting, with temps in the mid-90s and wind blowing out at 5 mph.
I have the true odds here around +270, making this a great bet.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run (+325)
Nationals vs. Red Sox HR Prop
C.J. Abrams
Home Run
This matchup is lefty/lefty, but it's a plus matchup for power.
Payton Tolle is a reverse-splits pitcher who has allowed a high 1.90 HR/9 in his career to lefties.
This ballpark isn't great for power, but the weather should be great for hitting, with temps in the mid-90s and wind blowing out at 10 mph.
I have the true odds here around +450.
Pick: C.J. Abrams Home Run (+550)
Padres vs. Cubs MLB Homer Play
Seiya Suzuki
Home Run
This is a great spot for the Cubs. The weather should be fantastic for hitting, with temps in the low-90s and wind blowing out at 12 mph.
Walker Buehler has been great at suppressing power this season, but he's due for some big regression, and he's been a matchup that is well above average for power the last few seasons.
I have the true odds here around +250.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki Home Run (+325)
Mets vs. Blue Jays HR Pick
Dalton Varsho
Home Run
Varsho hasn't been great this season, but these odds are far too good. This ballpark is great for power, and the matchup vs Freddy Peralta is good.
Peralta has been hit hard by lefty power this season, allowing a 1.66 HR/9.
I have the true odds here around +500, making this a massive +EV bet.
Pick: Dalton Varsho Home Run (+625)
Dodgers vs. Athletics Home Run Prop
Nick Kurtz
Home Run
As of right now, it looks like Brock Stewart will be starting for the Dodgers in what will mostly be a bullpen game. The Dodgers' bullpen is good, but Kurtz is one of the best hitters in the league, and these odds are too high.
This ballpark is one of the best in the league for power, and the weather should be good for hitting, with temps in the mid-80s and wind blowing out at 9 mph.
I have the true odds here around +270.
Pick: Nick Kurtz Home Run (+320)
