We start the week with a 12-game slate, which offers plenty of options to bring you some bangers.
Read on for my Home Run Picks Today for Monday, May 4.
Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 ET | |
| 6:40 ET | |
| 7:05 ET | |
| 7:40 ET | |
| 9:40 ET | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
Blue Jays vs Rays Home Run Pick
Kazuma Okamoto
Home Run
Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto has been on an unreal tear recently and has been the hottest home run hitter in baseball over the past few days.
He gets a matchup vs. Nick Martinez, who is a plus matchup for HRs and is a splits-neutral pitcher.
This ballpark is a downgrade, but I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Home Run (+390)
Blue Jays vs Rays Player Prop
Junior Caminero
Home Run
Opposing pitcher Eric Lauer has been in rough shape this season, and Rays 3B Junior Caminero is one of the best HR hitters in the league.
Lauer has given up a massive 2.33 HR/9 this season and grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds here around +250.
Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run (+310)
Orioles vs. Yankees Home Run Prop
Pete Alonso
Home Run
Big Meat Pete has been in much better form recently, and these odds are a bit too high.
The weather in New York should be good for hitting, and even though Yankees SP Cam Schlittler hasn't given up a ton of bombs, Pete Alonso grades out as a slightly below-average matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds here around +325, making this an excellent bet.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run (+380)
Reds vs. Cubs Top HR Pick
Moises Ballesteros
Home Run
There are some potential weather problems in this game, but if it plays, these odds here are too high.
Cubs DH Moises Ballesteros has been great, and the wind is going to be blowing out around 16 mph.
Reds pitcher Chase Petty is a plus matchup for lefty power, and I have the true odds here around +325.
Pick: Moises Ballesteros Home Run (+390)
Braves vs. Mariners Home Run Pick
Julio Rodriguez
Home Run
J-Rod started out the season slowly, but he's been in better form recently, and this is a good spot.
JR Ritchie may be a good pitcher at some point, but he's given up a lot of bombs so far and hasn't been much of a ground-ball pitcher.
The weather should be good for hitting in Seattle, and I have the true odds for the Mariners CF around +425, making this a great bet.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Home Run (+520)
