Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for MLB Opening Day on Friday, March 29.
MLB Predictions for Friday, March 29
Brewers vs Mets
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -110 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -106 |
Freddy Peralta vs. José Quintana
These two clubs will try again for Opening Day after postponement on Thursday, and the main story is the weather conditions in Flushing. There are 15-20 mph forecasted winds from the northwest for first pitch of this game, which is blowing straight in from left at already pitcher-friendly Citi Field. When you combine that with the Mets' improved defense compared to last season, the market is overrating the scoring potential in this matchup.
Freddy Peralta may have had a poor spring in terms of ERA (7.20) but his underlying peripherals were just fine in his 15 innings of work. Peralta averaged more than a strikeout per inning and showcased solid command, so even if he allowed five homers, his 18:4 K:BB ratio is encouraging for how his stuff played this spring.
Peralta was nicknamed Fastball Freddy when he first broke into the bigs because of the reliance on the heater at a 75% clip in 2018-19, but he's cut the usage below 60% and developed two secondaries that grade out as above-average by Stuff+. His slider and curveball were both league-average pitches in 2023, but it helped his fastball play up as one of the best in the sport.
Only Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman and Blake Snell had a higher strikeout rate than Peralta after July 1 last year. He's now the ace of the Brewers' staff with the departure of Corbin Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff.
Milwaukee was the league's best defense by outs above average (OAA) last season and the Mets will be improved from their 22nd rank as they have a plus center fielder and move off some poor corner outfielders from last year.
The Bet: Under 7.5 (-115 or better)
Braves vs Phillies
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7 -122o / -100u | -130 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7 -122o / -100u | +110 |
Spencer Strider vs. Zack Wheeler
I wrote a more in-depth preview for this game here, so I'll just list some key notes from that.
These two teams were postponed from Thursday to Friday as well, and this is the first time Strider and Wheeler will face off against one another. Including playoffs, Friday is the fifth time in seven starts that Strider will pitch against the Phillies, who ended Atlanta's season in the NLDS last year.
- The wind is also blowing straight in from left field at Citizens Bank Park, 13-18 mph.
- Philadelphia's defense projects to be clearly above average with major improvements at CF, LF, and 1B in 2024.
- Atlanta beefed up its bullpen with more velocity and more left-handers to combat Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper at the top of the Philly lineup.
- Citizens Bank Park is one of the most wind-impacted ball parks in MLB.
The Bet: Under 7.5 (-125 or better)
Pirates vs Marlins
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +116 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -134 |
Martin Perez vs. A.J. Puk
The Pirates and Marlins played 12 innings yesterday and trying to project who is and isn't available in these respective bullpens for an early season back to back is quite difficult.
The Marlins project to have a clear advantage in the bullpen generally, but David Bednar didn't pitch for Pittsburgh yesterday and the Marlins used six relievers behind Jesus Luzardo.
Bednar was dealing with some minor injury concerns in spring, but did pitch well on Monday in relief. I've decided to avoid the bullpens altogether with my bet because of the uncertainty and lack of confidence in either side. Instead, I'm targeting Miami early in the game due to its notable pitching advantage with the new starter A.J. Puk.
Oneil Cruz homered on Opening Day off righty Sixto Sanchez, but the dynamic young star for Pittsburgh still has major platoon splits. The same is true for Jack Suwinski, who didn't even start on Thursday because of it.
The Pirates' lineup doesn't project nearly as well against southpaws as it does against righties as a result, and that could be an issue for them on Friday against the second of four lefties they'll face this weekend in Miami.
Puk made four starts in spring training and pitched 13 2/3 innings. He had a 23:4 K:BB ratio and allowed two runs in total. His Stuff+ on his fastball was 116 when pitching last season in relief, but the more encouraging sign was the quality of his command. Puk had a 103 Location+, clear above-average command and he displayed high quality control during spring as well.
He's almost a half-run better than his counterpart, Martin Perez. Most public projections see Puk as a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher, and his Pitching+ projected ERA is 3.87. Perez is a command artist at this point in his career with clearly below average stuff, and it's impossible to project him for an ERA below 4.50.
As a result, I like Miami first five up to -145.
The Bet: Marlins F5 ML (-145 or better)
