A prop market that has grown in popularity and offered at FanDuel is the daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
For today's slate, Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt is the favorite at +800 as he takes on the Mariners. Right behind him are a couple of southpaws who are squaring off with one another: Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi and Chicago's Garrett Crochet, both at +850.
The only other starting pitcher on today's slate with odds shorter than +1500 is Minnesota's Joe Ryan, who is +1100 against the Nationals.
My value plays in this market can be found further down the odds board, however, including Tampa Bay's Zack Littell (+2200), Texas's Jon Gray (+1500) and Atlanta's Charlie Morton (+1900).
We'll start with Littell as he gets set to face the Red Sox. His three main pitches all have whiff rates of 25% or better. His split-finger is excellent and has a 35% whiff rate, but only has a put-away rate of 14%.
I expect his put-away rate to be nearly 10% higher with that split-finger, so he could have a breakout 8+ strikeout game soon.
The Red Sox also should have a fairly strikeout-friendly lineup, and this is the kind of slate where 8-10 strikeouts could take down this market, which brings a pitcher like Littell into play.
Gray and the Rangers will face the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies, and the veteran right-hander has been solid this year. He throws his slider 45% of the time and it has a 35% whiff rate.
The Phillies have a handful of hitters he should be able to K around 30% of the time, so I like his upside today.
For Morton and the Braves, my model does show value; however, it's worth noting that he's facing a Cubs team that is tough to strikeout and the weather at Wrigley Field will have winds blowing out to left field at 25+ mph.
Below, you can find my projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Tuesday, May 21st.
