Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds & Pick: Still Value On Saturday’s Under
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Freeland.
- Kyle Freeland and Dustin May face off in what should be a pitcher's duel on Saturday night.
- Our baseball betting analyst Michael Arinze explains why there's still value on the Rockies-Dodgers under.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds
|Rockies Odds||+185 [Bet Now]|
|Dodgers Odds||-208 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-110/-110) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||9:10 p.m. ET|
The Los Angeles Dodgers are red-hot: winners in nine of their last 10 games, leading the NL West by a four-game margin, and currently riding a two-game winning streak. LA’s most recent victim was the Colorado Rockies, who lost 5-1 on Friday night and trailed the Dodgers for nearly the entire game.
Runs were hard to come by yesterday, and tonight’s matchup could bring more of the same — even with different starting pitchers taking the mound.
Check out our free MLB odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
The Rockies have lost five games in a row, and they’ll look to turn things around with Kyle Freeland on the mound for his sixth start of the season. Freeland is off to a good start with a 2-1 record and 2.56 ERA. While it’s only been six starts, Freeland has improved dramatically from last season when he went 3-11 with a 6.73 ERA.
Per Baseball Savant, Freeland has increased the usage of his changeup from 12.5% in 2019 to 31.4% this season. More importantly, he’s decreased his average spin rate on the pitch from 1,519 RPM to 1,370 RPM while still maintaining the same speed. Last season, Freeland’s changeup was relatively flat; but now, his decreased spin rate has generated 1.5 inches in vertical movement.
Opposing batters are hitting just .196 off his changeup compared to .367 last year. On top of that, Freeland is wisely throwing his changeup more frequently (31.4%) than any other pitch in his arsenal in order to maximize its effectiveness. Those mechanical and strategic changes have helped increase Freeland’s groundball-to-flyball ratio from 1.42 to 2.57 year-over-year.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Freeland will be opposed by Dodgers phenom Dustin May. Through five starts, May is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. May has only made nine starts in the majors, which is arguably insufficient for a representative sample.
What we do know is that the kid throws gas and lots of it. May has no problem hitting triple digits on the radar gun, and he’s not bashful about it either. He’ll need to work on mixing in his secondary pitches, because hitters seem to be sitting on the fastball ( .309 BAA), which he throws 50% of the time. You have to wonder if he’s falling in love with the pitch a bit too much.
Should May stumble on Saturday night, he will be backed up by a Dodgers bullpen that boasts the lowest ERA (1.85) in MLB.
If you like pitching, then this is a matchup for you. Both pitchers certainly have the goods to keep runs off the board.
Just two seasons ago, Freeland went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 202 innings — half of which came in the hitter’s haven that is Coors Field. During that stellar 2018 season, Freeland pitched to a 2.77 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers. He’s more than up to the challenge, and he seems to have regained his form.
Figure this: In Freeland’s 10 career starts against LA, the under is a perfect 10-0. The Dodgers are 14-11-3 to the under this season and 7-4-3 when at home. Meanwhile, the Rockies are 8-3 to the under on the highway. And if you’re wondering about May, well he’s no slouch either: All he’s done is go 6-2-1 to the under in his nine starts in the pros.
The books opened this line at 9.5 and it’s already been bet down to 8.5.
I still like the play but I wouldn’t wait too long to act. Head over to BetMGM and grab it at the current number before it’s gone.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (Play down to 8)