We have a full 15-game slate today, starting with Phillies vs Tigers at 6:40 PM ET at Comerica Park and closing with Rockies vs Giants at 10:15 PM ET at Oracle Field.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Friday, July 10.
Below are SEVEN expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for any matchup below to navigate to the specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
 | 10:05 PM | |
  | 10:15 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Evan Abrams's Phillies vs Tigers Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
The Philadelphia Phillies visit Comerica Park for this interleague matchup against the Detroit Tigers. The total is set at 8.5, with subtle movement or stability favoring the Under as first pitch approaches in the moderate temperature and elevated humidity conditions that the system highlights.
Both teams have shown recent tendencies to stay under in their games, with Detroit posting a low five-game over rate that points to a subdued offensive rhythm. The humidity levels tonight fall squarely in the 45-95% range that has historically suppressed scoring more than the public assumes, especially with neutral wind patterns at Comerica Park.
The starting pitching matchup and overall pace further align with a controlled, lower-scoring game. While the Phillies bring strong offensive potential, the environmental factors and recent team trends create the exact profile the Humidity Suppressed Scoring system targets.
The market opened with expectations that have quietly adjusted downward, reflecting sharper money recognizing these conditions, while the public remains focused on team reputations rather than the actual playing environment.
The "Public Fades Humidity" system excels in spots like this one, where weather nuances and recent under trends quietly point to suppressed offense that the line has not fully accounted for.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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Nick Martin's Cubs vs Reds Best Bet
By Nick Martin
There is some volatility here surrounding Hunter Greene entering this matchup, as there are understandably questions after his disastrous season debut.
His underlying pitch metrics were largely in line with what he's typically offered, though, and one rough outing is not enough to conclude that one of the game's best young pitchers is poised for an extended stretch of struggles.
Shota Imanaga enters this matchup in a strong run of form and has done a better job of limiting walks and hard contact of late, while still generating an elite chase rate.
While Great American Ball Park remains one of the league's better run-scoring environments, a total of 9.5 appears pretty high given the upside of both starters. At -118 or better, there looks to be value in backing this matchup to feature under 9.5 runs.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-125 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Athletics vs White Sox Best Bet
By Derek Carty
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the podcast.
I am looking at Sean Burke Under 5.5 Strikeouts. The Bat X model is projecting Burke for 5.1 strikeouts today.
This handicap really comes down to two main factors. First, while Burke's strikeout rate has ticked up this year, his advanced Statcast metrics are virtually identical to last season.
Because his core stuff hasn't fundamentally changed, I’m not buying into the idea that he's suddenly become a high-strikeout pitcher.
Second, he is facing an Athletics lineup that is sneakily tough to punch out. If you only look at their full-season metrics, they look like a borderline top-ten strikeout team. However, the specific lineup they are running out today projects to have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball.
They have Jacob Wilson back in the mix, and they've called up top prospects who are slotting right into the top of the order—guys who are incredibly disciplined and possess elite bat-to-ball skills.
If people are blindly betting this based on the A's overall season statistics, they will assume it is an above-average strikeout matchup for a pitcher.
But the Athletics version we’ll see on the field today is a very low-strikeout group. That makes this a phenomenal spot to take the Under on Burke.
Pick: Sean Burke Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115 or Better)
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Charlie Wright's Angels vs Twins Best Bet
The Twins have been among the best offenses in the league lately, ranking in the top four in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHP over the past 30 days.
They will face Grayson Rodriguez, who is returning from injury.
Rodriguez has been hammered for 23 ER in 25.2 IP this season. He ranks in the first percentile in xERA, xBA, and hard-hit rate.
The Angels pitcher might not go five innings, and he'll be relieved by one of the league's worst bullpens.
Pick: Twins F5 TT Over 2.5 (-110 or Better)
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Matthew Lopes's Blue Jays vs Padres Best Bet
Albeit a small sample size, Shane Bieber's second season in Toronto has been a serious disappointment.
A two-time All-Star and former Cy Young Award winner in Cleveland, the 31-year-old Bieber has been a shell of his former self since returning from injury last month. In just 13 innings, the right-hander has allowed six home runs and has a 54.2% hard-hit rate. Opponents are slugging .737 against the veteran so far this season, including a .750 SLG against his four-seam fastball, a pitch Bieber throws 40% of the time.
Right-handed bats are hitting .444 with an .852 SLG so far on the season against Bieber, making Manny Machado a candidate to cause some damage this evening in San Diego.
The veteran third baseman has found his groove at the plate again after a rough start to 2026. So far in July, Machado has gone deep three times and is slugging .615 with a 1.009 OPS.
The rumors of Machado's demise are likely exaggerated. While his overall batting average remains well below his expected mark, Machado has always been notorious for his slow starts. For instance, he owns a career OPS of .777 in May, compared to .853 in June and .870 in July.
This season has been a similar story for the seven-time All-Star. Machado owns a .294 ISO since June 1st, one of the highest marks in baseball during that span, and is now up to a team-high 19 home runs on the season.
His propensity to crush fastballs remains, as the 34-year-old is slugging .611 this season against the four-seamer in particular. Of those 19 bombs, 14 have come off a fastball, so look for Machado to try to pounce on a heater from Bieber early in this one.
Pick: Manny Machado Home Run (+350 or Better)
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Adam Trigger's Triple-A Baseball Best Bet
Tacoma Rainiers @ Las Vegas Aviators
Friday, 10:05 PM ET
By Adam Trigger
Tacoma significantly upgraded its offense earlier this week, which is especially notable given the Rainiers have been among the worst offenses in the Pacific Coast League this season.
Since Colt Emerson was called up to Seattle, Tacoma has been a bottom-tier lineup. But that all changed once Double-A studs Lazardo Montes and Michael Arroyo got the call-up to Triple-A.
While both struggled in their respective Triple-A debuts on Tuesday, Arroyo has been white-hot since then, and so has the Tacoma offense, which put up nine runs on Wednesday and 18 on Thursday.
I think these additions have injected some juice into the lineup.
Additionally, Las Vegas Ballpark is one of the best run-scoring environments at the Triple-A level, and the Aviators don’t have much pitching at the moment, so I expect the Rainiers to stay hot this weekend.
I’d love to find some decent spots to back Tacoma over the weekend, but the Rainiers also don’t have much pitching. Seattle is loaded with arms at the big-league level, but all the prospect pitching is at Double-A or lower.
Las Vegas recently lost Joshua Kuroda-Grauer to the A’s, which is a huge loss, but the lineup remains loaded.
Getting Joey Meneses back has been huge, as he’s been a beast at the Triple-A level this season. Tommy White is another big-time prospect. Cade Marlowe is also having a big season at this level. Catcher Brian Serven is running a .928 OPS. Jared Dickey is a recently promoted bat from Double-A who has upside.
Las Vegas has won the PCL in back-to-back seasons, and it’s because this organization seems to have a revolving door of high-upside bats. This wave of talent is no different, and I think we’ll see Vegas score just as much as Tacoma over the weekend.
Although this total could open in the 14.5-run range, it might still be too low.
Pick: Tacoma vs Las Vegas Over
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Sean Zerillo's Rockies vs Giants Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Under in this matchup.
If you want to learn more about this matchup, you should check out BARTOLO, our new PRO Baseball Betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the input data I use to project games each day.
Pick: Under 8 (+100 or Better)
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