We have a 13-game slate today, starting with Braves vs Pirates at 12:35 PM ET at PNC Park, including Cubs vs Orioles at 6:35 PM ET at Camden Yards, and ending with Diamondbacks vs Padres at 9:40 PM ET at PetCo Park.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday, July 9.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for any matchup below to navigate to the specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Braves vs Pirates Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals based on perceived offensive strength, yet these teams also tend to have stronger pitching and tighter late-game execution, creating a profitable edge on the Under.
While these two starting pitchers won’t blow you away, both are very competent and even slightly underrated.
Despite diminished stuff, Elder is on pace for career-best earned run indicators (3.61 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, 4.81 botERA). He’s upped his four-seam usage this season while introducing a cutter, and it seems to be working.
Keller is having a tough year, but much of that has been due to his super-low 64% strand rate. His 5.02 ERA should start to regress toward his 4.24 botERA in the second half.
The Braves have a very good lineup against righties, but the Pirates project as a below-average one against righties. Atlanta also has an elite bullpen, so I expect very little scoring from the Pittsburgh side today.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, check out Sean Zerillo's new PRO baseball betting tool, BARTOLO. You can get access to all the data below every day with a PRO subscription.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-110 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Red Sox vs White Sox Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
While Anthony Kay has righted the ship somewhat after a rough start, he’s struck out exactly 2 in three of his last four starts and fewer than five in five of his last seven.
He owns a 10.4 SwStr% during this stretch, but skewed by single-game marks of 19.1% and 14.9%.
Additionally, his strikeout rate drops to a paltry 14% against RHBs this season. With Kay averaging just 21 batters faced per start and exceeding 22 only once over this seven-start span, he’s projected to face 13 batters with the platoon advantage and potentially as many as 15, depending on whether Jarren Duran or a RHB hit leadoff.
There’s also the fact that the first 21 batters through the projected lineup average just an 18.8 K% against LHP. Whatever problems the Red Sox have had, they still smoke LHP (projected lineup 132 wRC+, .203 ISO).
Finally, the environment in which Kay is expected to be pitching (park, umpire, weather) could decrease strikeouts 8-9%.
It’s going to be difficult for him to reach the five strikeouts needed for his strikeout prop on Thursday.
Pick: Anthony Kay Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Cubs vs Orioles Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Over in this matchup.
While the total still sits at 9.5 at most shops, I project 10.3 runs for this matchup, and would be Over 10 at +100 or better.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, check out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool available to all PRO subscribers, giving you all the data I use to project games each day.
Pick: Over 10 (+100 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Diamondbacks vs Padres Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
This system backs teams in regular-season division games coming off a dominant win over a divisional opponent, leveraging momentum and familiarity in rivalry spots.
Focusing on teams with win percentages between 16% and 75% avoids both extreme outliers and market darlings.
It targets games where teams are priced between -135 and +290 and have just completed a win by more than six runs, indicating a strong recent performance.
Layering in a moderate home/away streak and the context of back-to-back division matchups, this strategy aims to exploit situations where public reaction hasn’t fully adjusted to recent blowout results.
The Padres beat the Diamondbacks 10-4 yesterday and can absolutely do the same today.
Pick: Padres ML (-130 or Better)
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