MLB Opening Day has arrived, and our baseball betting experts are all over it with six MLB best bets for Thursday, March 27.
Our Opening Day picks include MLB player props for Zack Wheeler, Clay Holmes and Sean Burke, plus three moneyline predictions for Pirates vs. Marlins, Tigers vs. Dodgers and Athletics vs. Mariners.
MLB Best Bets. Predictions, Moneyline Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's Phillies vs Nationals Best Bet: Wheeler Strikeouts
By Charlie Wright
The Nationals had one of the toughest lineups to strike out last season, and they could be even better in that regard this season.
Washington finished with the eighth-lowest K% against right-handed pitchers last season. Over the final two months of the year, the Nats were down to the fourth-lowest strikeout rate.
They've moved on from high-strikeout bats, like Lane Thomas and Joey Gallo, and replaced them with good contact options, including Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell. Paul DeJong stands out as a whiff-heavy addition, but the surrounding lineup should make up for his shortcomings.
Zack Wheeler maxed out at 75 pitches and five innings in Spring Training. That will likely be the extent of his leash in his season debut.
Wheeler exceeded 10 K/9 last season for the first time since 2021, but projection systems have him falling back below that mark. He should be good for a strikeout per inning, but anything beyond that is unlikely.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140; DraftKings)
Brit Devine's Mets vs Astros Best Bet: Holmes Strikeouts
By Brit Devine
Holmes' transition into a starter role got off to a great start in Spring Training. He topped out at 88 pitches in his last start and struck out 23 batters in 19 1/3 innings.
The Astros project to be a low strikeout team, but Holmes has more than enough ability to clear such a low hurdle with him being as stretched out as any starter entering Opening Day.
Holmes added a new "kick change" to his repertoire and had good results, making him even more effective, in theory, with a larger arsenal than when he was a reliever.
There is some juice on this bet, but with Holmes looking great this seems like a reasonable number to bet the over even against a low strikeout team.
Pick: Clay Holmes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Editor's Note: This number has ticked up to 4.5 as of Thursday morning.
Brit Devine's Pirates vs Marlins Best Bet
By Brit Devine
There won't be many times this season that I will be on the Pirates as -150ish favorites, but Opening Day lines up well for them.
Paul Skenes looks fully stretched out, hitting 85 pitches on March 17 in Spring Training, while his counterpart, Sandy Alcantara, topped out at 57 pitches and is unlikely to go too deep into the game.
Alcantara had a great Spring Training, but with him unlikely to go beyond five innings, the Pirates should have the opportunity to beat up on a bad Marlins bullpen later in the game.
On offense, the Pirates have some actual MLB-level bats, while the Marlins might have only one MLB-caliber hitter in leadoff man Xavier Edwards with Connor Norby hitting the IL.
The Pirates' bullpen isn't great, but it should still be better than the Marlins', who should compete for one of the worst bullpens in MLB this season.
With advantages in all three main phases of the game, I'm backing the Pirates to give the Marlins the first of many Ls this season.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-154)
Brit Devine's Angels vs. White Sox Best Bet: Sean Burke Strikeouts
By Brit Devine
