Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, October 10.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview the winner-take-all Game 5 between the Tigers and Mariners. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB best bets for ALDS Game 5 on Friday, October 10.
MLB Best Bets, Picks, Predictions — ALDS Game 5
Series Moneyline Corner
I wanted to provide updated futures notes and projected series prices for the ALCS and NLCS, depending upon the winners of the winner-take-all games on both Friday and Saturday.
I would make Toronto -113 favorites (52.9%) in an ALCS against Seattle, assuming that Bryan Woo is ready to pitch for the Mariners and that Bo Bichette returns as a DH for the Blue Jays. Alternatively, I would project Toronto closer to -170 (63% implied) against Detroit, with Tarik Skubal unable to start on regular rest until Game 3.
If you believe that the Tigers will beat the Mariners as favorites in Game 5 behind Skubal, then there is present value on the Blue Jays pennant price at -120.
I'd set Los Angeles as near 70% favorites (projected -233) in the NLCS against either Chicago or Milwaukee, even without a potential Game 7 at home against the Brewers. As a result, I show an edge on the Dodgers' Pennant odds (listed -180 or 64.3% implied) up to at least -212 (68% implied) before their NLCS opponent is even decided.
I'm not alone in that forecast, either; public projections put the Dodgers between 69.5% and 73.3%, with a consensus projection of 70.9% (-244 implied) to win the NL.
I've already given out the Dodgers' NL Pennant at +320, +225, and -105 this postseason. Still, given the projected aggressive pitching deployment for both the Brewers and Cubs on Sunday, the Dodgers should have a significant pitching advantage in NLCS Game 1, regardless of their opponent (Blake Snell starting opposite either Jameson Taillon or Quinn Priester, with tired bullpens behind them).
The Dodgers getting through the Phillies in four games or less allowed them to rest a shallow relief group, and their rotation depth should be significant enough to carry them past their remaining NL opponents.
Investing in the Dodgers before NLCS Game 1 — whether you have futures already or not — remains highly actionable.
I'd project their World Series odds at +114 (46.7% implied); the projection market has them between 43.6% and 53.7%, with a consensus forecast of +108 (48% implied); you can still find as high as +130 (43.5% implied).
Mariners vs. Tigers Prediction, Pick
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 6 100o / -120u | -130 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 6 100o / -120u | +110 |
Tarik Skubal vs. George Kirby
While the Mariners waited to announce a starter for Friday, I'd expect George Kirby and Luis Castillo — both of whom are on complete rest — to factor in heavily to their Game 5 pitching plan.
Kirby (3.85 xERA, 3.25 xFIP, 20.6% K-BB%, 110 Pitching+, 3.70 botERA) grades out as the better pitcher than Castillo (4.09 xERA, 4.09 xFIP, 15.6% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.21 botERA), but it's the latter who has shown a more significant home/road split.
Kirby had virtually identical numbers whether at home or on the road in 2025, and he has a fairly negligible split for his career (3.27 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB% at home vs. 3.68, 18.3% on the road).
Conversely, Castillo has been a far more effective pitcher at T-Mobile Park (3.77 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB%) than he has been away from home (4.49 xFIP, 12.9% K-BB%). And his splits were even more drastic last season (3.26 xFIP, 22.8% K-BB% at home vs. 4.51, 11.9% on the road).
Neither has ever pitched in relief across 355 career games, but Kirby ran into trouble the third time through the order in Game 1, and I'd anticipate that he turns over the lineup twice before exiting. I would take Kirby Under 15.5 Outs to -150.
The righties will keep the Tigers in their lesser split; the Tigers were significantly better against lefties than righties both for the whole season (114 wRC+, 2nd vs. 98 wRC+, 19th) and after the trade deadline (116 wRC+, 4th vs. 89 wRC+, 24th).
While the Mariners have the superior bullpen on paper (4th vs. 21st in xFIP, 5th vs. 29th in K-BB% after the trade deadline), their high-leverage relievers are less rested coming into Game 5; Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, and Gabe Speier have each thrown three times in the series, and Eduard Bazardo has pitched in all four games.
Conversely, only Kyle Finnegan and Brant Hurter have pitched three times for the Tigers, and Skubal will look to give them ample length on Friday.
The Mariners have faced Skubal three times this season and defeated him in all three starts, with Luis Castillo as their pitcher.
Skubal pitched much better in Game 2 (7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 9 K) than he did in either regular season outing; one in Seattle (5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K) on April 2, and one at home (5 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 2 BB 5 K) on July 11.
Relative to that first outing, Skubal has attacked the Mariners much more aggressively with his sinker and slider (up from 20% combined to 43% combined), and he threw his changeup, which is his best pitch (.191 xWOBA), just 22% of the time in Game 2, compared to 33% in the prior two outings.
The Mariners have the better offense than the Tigers (111 wRC+ vs. lefties after the trade deadline). Still, they are the lesser team defensively, finishing 18th in Defensive Runs Saved and 27th in Outs Above Average (-27) this season, compared to the Tigers' 9th (+36) and 17th (-1) rankings, respectively.
Ultimately, I projected the Tigers as -120 road favorites against Luis Castillo in Game 2, and I'd set them as -105 favorites in the same matchup in the same ballpark against George Kirby. And if you add Castillo into the mix to provide additional effective innings, I get the line down to +103.
As a result, bet the Mariners down to +112 for Friday, at a 2% edge compared to my projection.
I don't project an edge on the total, setting the number at 6.1 runs, but I would search for a live Over 5 after some early run suppression.
Lastly, I wanted to note the slight price adjustment in Skubal's props — against the same lineup — relative to Game 2. His current best available odds are -150 for Over 8.5 Strikeouts, compared to closing odds of -136 in Game 2. And more importantly, his outs prop is listed at 19.5 (-115 to the Over), compared to 18.5 (-114) in Game 2.
I'm assuming that the Overs will be heavily public, and the Unders relatively contrarian, with Skubal pitching in an elimination game. As a result, I would wait until as close to first pitch as possible to fire at the Unders, hoping to lay less juice on an Under 9.5 strikeouts (currently -146) or to take plus money on Under 19.5 outs.
So long as he's efficient, it's challenging to imagine Skubal coming out in a winner-take-all game before 21 outs, but 9.5 strikeouts is too high a line for most any pitcher on the planet, even in the park with MLB's highest strikeout boost.
Pick: Mariners ML (+125 | Bet to +112)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, October 10
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Sides and Totals
- Mariners ML (+125, 1u) at ESPNBet; bet to +112
Player Props
- George Kirby Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-108, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to -140
Futures and Props
- TBD
