We have an excellent 10-game slate scheduled in the MLB this Monday. Our baseball betting experts have locked in a trio of bets for two of today's matchups. Two of our experts are focused on the over/under for Orioles vs Mets, which is set to begin at 7:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network. Meanwhile, we also have a first five innings team total prediction for Angels vs Royals, with opening pitch set for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Let's get to our MLB best bets for Monday.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, August 19
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 8:10 p.m | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Orioles vs Mets Best Bet: Take the Over
By Tony Sartori
Baltimore hands the ball to left-hander Trevor Rogers, who should be an excellent fade candidate. Rogers is 2-11 through 24 starts this season with a 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse as the southpaw ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, David Peterson takes the mound for New York.
Analytically, he is hardly any better. Peterson ranks in 20th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Neither bullpen is likely to bail out these pitchers, considering that both relief staffs rank in the bottom-half of the league in ERA.
These pitching woes are likely to continue in this matchup as both clubs rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, SLG, OPS and home runs. Finally, we are catching a good price on the over at -104 via FanDuel, a line that is six cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
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Cody Goggin's Orioles vs Mets Best Bet: First Five Innings Over
By Cody Goggin
I already wrote about this pick in my Orioles-Mets game guide, but there is no better pick on the board in my mind today. New York and Baltimore are two of the top offenses in the league and are both facing below average pitchers, but the current total doesn’t reflect this properly in my mind.
David Peterson will be the starter for the Mets tonight. He has a 3.04 ERA this season but his 5.31 xERA indicates that he has gotten off easy. Peterson has a 16th percentile strikeout rate and 17th percentile walk rate. He also ranks in the 12th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 20th percentile in average exit velocity, but does have a 91st percentile ground ball rate.
Trevor Rogers will be his adversary tonight and has performed at a largely similar level. Rogers has a 4.89 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and 5.17 xERA. He ranks in the 12th percentile in strikeout rate, 13th percentile in whiff rate, and 26th percentile in walk rate. Like Peterson, he ranks 12th percentile in hard hit rate and ninth percentile in exit velocity, but has a 71st percentile ground ball rate that helps him.
These two offenses have both been elite this season. The Orioles rank second in wRC+ and wOBA. The Mets are just slightly behind them, ranking fifth and ninth in these two categories. Both teams rank in the top-10 of just about every production and contact quality metric out there this season.
With both starters being left-handed, platoon splits will come into play. However, neither of these teams have had issues against southpaws this year. The Orioles are second in wRC+ against left-handers, while the Mets are third. Baltimore ranks first in SLG and second in ISO against lefties, while the Mets are third and fourth in those categories, respectively.
New York ranks 28th this season with a 38.8% ground ball rate against left-handers while Baltimore ranks 28th in ground ball rate overall this season.
I think that these two offenses each have a distinct advantage in this matchup. Both of them hit the ball extremely hard and keep the ball off the ground, which should bode poorly for these two extreme ground ball pitchers.
At a first five innings total of 4.5, the over appears to be the best play as these two squads should be able to combine for quite a few runs at Citi Field tonight.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (-125)
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Justin Perri's Angels vs Royals Best Bet: KC F5 Team Total Over
By Justin Perri
The Royals have been a different team at home this year, a record at Kauffman of 38-25 with an average of over 5.2 runs scored per game. While on the road, they're 31-30 with an average of 4.5 runs scored. That's an increase of over 15% from away-to-home run production, and at this point in the season, it is something you can hang your hat on.
Why is this happening? There's plenty of theories but it's most likely as simple as Kauffman Stadium being second to only Coors Field in terms of park factor. In fact, the Royals home stadium is a full 2% tougher to strike out in than the next ballpark and, overall, Kansas City is playing where strikeouts are 11% less common than the major league average. Fewer strikeouts means more balls in play. More balls in play equals more runs. It's that simple.
Enter Carson Fulmer, the Angels starter tasked with keeping the Royals off the board today. Fulmer, of 140 pitchers who have thrown 1100+ pitches this season, ranks 123rd in Quality Pitch minus Bad Pitch Rate (QP-BP%) and has allowed an Expected Weighted On-Base Average on Contact (xwoBACON) of .299 or more in five straight starts. His rolling 100-pitch xwOBA is the worst it's been in a month, and there's a good chance that he will give the Royals opportunity to score three runs within the first five innings.
Diving a bit deeper, Fulmer has a really nice changeup, and can use his off-speed pitches well. However, the issue is with his fastball(s). He throws both a four seam and sinker. The four seam is in the bottom-1st percentile of barrel rate against. He allows 13.4% of batted balls on his four seamer to be barreled up, which is a Barrel per Plate Appearance rate that is higher than all but what Judge and Soto have done this season!
Then, Fulmer's sinker, which he does use more, is ranked in the bottom 15th-percentile of Pitch Level Value, and has been hit to an ideal contact rate of 38% which is also in the bottom 20% of the league. Bottom line, there's probably going to be some solid contact made.
The Royals should see close to 50% of their pitches from either of Fulmer's fastballs and given that he won't be helped out by park influenced strikeouts, this has a chance to get ugly early. Or in our case, hopefully a winner by the third inning. Trust the Royals to score at home against the below average arm.
Pick: Royals First Five Innings Over 2.5 Runs (-130)
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