The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins on May 23, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are -116 on the moneyline. The Twins are -102 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction
- Twins vs Red Sox Pick: Red Sox ML (-130 or Better)
Twins vs Red Sox Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -116 |
Twins vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Taj Bradley (RHP, MIN) | Stat | Jovani Morán (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 2.87 / 3.84 | ERA / xERA | 2.81 / 3.15 |
| 3.48 / 3.88 | FIP / xFIP | 4.62 / 4.28 |
| 17.6% | K-BB% | 14.3% |
| 34.6% | GB% | 36.7% |
| .276 | BABIP | .193 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 92 | Location+ | 93 |
Twins vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This system tracks modest favorites in conference games where the market slightly shifts toward them, often due to subtle edge signals that public models do not capture.
The strategy rides light market momentum in tight, competitive spots where fundamental metrics signal a long-term edge.
Twins vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
I’m no believer in Brayan Bello, but he has been markedly better when following an opener this season. He’s piggybacked Jovani Moran twice this season, tossing 13 ⅓ two-run innings against the Phillies and Tigers (two good offenses) with 12 strikeouts to two walks.
Taj Bradley is fine, but his botERA (4.58) and BABIP/strand rates (.276/84.3%) signal some regression.
Boston’s lineup is an abomination, but Minnesota’s bats have regressed after their red-hot start, posting a .300 xwOBA in May after a .323 in April.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have huge advantages in the bullpen (Minnesota’s relievers are bad) and on defense (Boston is the best in the league in that regard).
While Justin Slaten blew yesterday’s game, at least the Red Sox got to rest Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock, which should really help today.
Ultimately, I project the Red Sox ML close to -140.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-130 or Better)
