The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 11, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Brewers are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs. Pirates prediction below, along with probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction
- Brewers vs Pirates Pick: Over 8.5
My Brewers vs Pirates best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Pirates Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -130 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | +110 |
- Brewers vs Pirates moneyline: Brewers -130, Pirates +110
- Brewers vs Pirates over/under: 8.5 (-122 / -100)
- Brewers vs Pirates spread: Brewers -1.5 (+126), Pirates +1.5 (-152)
Brewers vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Shane Drohan (LHP, MIL) | Stat | Bubba Chandler (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 3-8 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.97 / 3.49 | ERA / xERA | 4.82 / 4.28 |
| 3.21 / 3.79 | FIP / xFIP | 4.71 / 5.20 |
| 15.4% | K-BB% | 6.8% |
| 43.2% | GB% | 36.7% |
| .300 | BABIP | .264 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 105 | Location+ | 101 |
Brewers vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This system targets overs in games that begin in the late afternoon to early evening, or what bettors often refer to as "twilight spots."
These games exist in a temperature and lighting window that subtly elevates scoring conditions, particularly when both teams have a documented tendency to hit overs.
Combined with home starters who may have below-average WHIPs, this setup identifies an edge before the public fully reacts.
By isolating recent season trends and capitalizing on the transitional scoring environment, the model captures a high-expectation scoring spot that may be underpriced due to time-of-day bias or modest pitching projections.
Brewers vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
As good as Shane Drohan's numbers look, he's still a converted reliever who has given up multiple runs in almost every start this season. He's running a 4.01 xFIP with a below-average batted-ball profile.
Meanwhile, I'm a believer in Bubba Chandler's stuff, but not his command. He's running a near-14% walk rate.
Milwaukee's lineup has a projected 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. They should feast here against Chandler and Pittsburgh's bottom-10 bullpen.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's lineup has some pop, and hopefully should go run-for-run with Milwaukee in a barn-burner.
Pick: Over 8.5
