Mets vs Rays Odds
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 -225 |
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +185 |
The latest Mets vs Rays odds have the moneyline as a pick'em, with both the Mets and Rays listed at -110. The over/under is set at 7.5 (+100o / -120u).
Mets top pitching prospect Christian Scott will make his major-league debut on Saturday night versus the Rays. Scott earned the callup with a tremendous start to the year in Triple-A — though he gets a tough matchup against Zack Littell, who has pitched to a 3.27 ERA across 33 innings.
Let's dive into my Mets vs Rays pick and prediction for Saturday, May 4.
New York Mets
Christian Scott has the opportunity to be an impact starter for a Mets organization in dire need of some homegrown pitching talent.
The 24 year-old Florida product entered the season as a top 100 prospect, and has built upon the growing hype with a 3.20 ERA across 25 and 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball. He owns SO/9 of 12.8 with Syracuse, and a WHIP of 0.711. His fastballs projects to continue to generate consistent swing-and-miss at the big league level.
In his only Spring Training outing he allowed just three hits and struck out eight batters across five innings.
As expected, the Mets bullpen has been a strength so far this season. They own a fourth best ERA of 2.74, and seventh-best xFIP of 3.74. None of their high leverage options were used in yesterday's matchup, and should all be available once Scott leaves this matchup.
The Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 104 this season, and have displayed sound plate discipline as evidenced by a 0.42 BB/K. Their xSLG rating ranks eighth at .419. They own comparable splits versus right-handed pitching in particular, with a 103 wRC+ of 103, and strikeout rate of just 20.6%.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays offense has been a concern to this point, and is the main reason for their disappointing 15-18 record. They own a wRC+ of only 97. They have struck out 24.2% of the time, and have a walk-rate of just 7.2%. Those numbers are a far cry from what we have seen in previous years, from a lineup which typically has been able grind down opposing pitchers with a scrappy process.
Over the last two weeks, the Rays own the fourth worst with a 27.5% strikeout rate, and wRC+ of just 79 versus right-handed pitchers.
Zack Littell's strong form has certainly been a bright spot for the Rays thus far. He has pitched to an xFIP of 3.08, and an xERA of 3.08. He owns a Stuff+ of only 82, but has displayed excellent command of his four pitches. He owns a Location+ of 106, and walked just 3.5% of batters faced.
With RISP Littell owns a strike-rate of 72% this season, which is the fifth highest mark among qualified starters.
For a change the Rays bullpen has also been a significant concern this season. They own a league worst 5.43 ERA, and a second worst xFIP of 4.75. With Pete Fairbanks on the sidelines and several top arms used yesterday, the bullpen is a particularly strong concern for the Rays in this matchup.
Mets vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Christian Scott has the stuff to make an immediate impact at the MLB level. The Rays have been pretty shaky against right-handed pitching recently, and provide him with an easier than average matchup. The Mets relief pitching has been excellent so far this season, and Carlos Mendoza should have all of his top bullpen arms available in this spot.
The Rays bullpen will be without some key arms, and as a result the Mets have a quietly large pitching edge in this matchup. At least if you believe that Scott can perform that is, and I think we will see him have a solid debut.
There is value backing the Mets at -105, and any price better than -110 is worthy of a play.
