Mets vs. Orioles Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+130 | 9.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -148 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-155 | 9.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +124 |
The New York Mets looked the part of a team in the midst of a lost season earlier this week in Kansas City, as they were swept by a combined score of 18-8. They look to bounce back with David Peterson (5.92 ERA in 62 1/3 IP) taking on the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles.
Dean Kremer will start for Baltimore, which took three of four this week in Toronto to extend its lead atop the division. Kremer has pitched to an ERA of 4.96 this season, including a mark of 3.45 in July.
Continue reading for my betting prediction for the Mets vs. Orioles interleague series opener at Camden Yards.
New York Mets
While the Mets' recent run has no doubt been pathetic, it's important to note in terms of handicapping not to overrate ideas regarding motivation of pro athletes. There is still some legitimate talent left in the Mets lineup, and it's unlikely the kind of obviously disinterested play we saw in Kansas City will continue for long.
Over the last 30 days, the Mets have hit to a middle-of-the-pack wRC+ of 99 and a strikeout rate of just 21.7%. Their BB/K ratio 0f 0.40 ranks 10th league-wide and is evidence of a lineup that is far from a walk in the park for opposing pitchers.
Surprisingly poor pitching has been the greater disappointment for the Mets this season, and Peterson's 5.92 ERA after putting up a 3.83 ERA last year has contributed to that issue. Peterson did pitch to a mark of 3.12 in 17 1/3 July innings, though, and his underlying profile suggests he should continue to improve on his ugly season long average.
Peterson owns a strong xFIP of 3.48, yet an alarmingly high BABIP of .385 this season. Not only has Peterson had rough luck with softer contact finding holes, it has often been with men on as he has stranded just 67.8% of baserunners.
His Pitching+ rating of 93 compares to last season, and should not dictate Peterson being among the worst starters in baseball as he has been thus far.
Baltimore Orioles
Overachieving with a two-game lead atop the toughest division in baseball, Baltimore's clubhouse likely features a polar opposite atmosphere than that of the visiting Mets.
The Orioles have hit to a wRC+ of 108 over the last 30 days, which ranks 11th in baseball. They have also been dominant versus left-handed pitching this season, with a wRC+ of 111 in 1,153 PAs against lefties.
An abnormally dominant run of success with RISP has bolstered the Orioles' recent run production. Over the last 30 days, they have hit to a BABIP of .363 with RISP. While Baltimore deserves some credit for succeeding with "clutch" at-bats, you do not need to look further than the Rays, to see that such runs of dominance are always likely to level off.
Kremer has pitched to an xERA of 5.49 this season, with an xFIP of 4.35. Batters have hammered his fastball, including a line drive rate of 32%, and an xSLG rate of .511.
While he is faring better with his other pitches, batters still own an average of .269 versus his non-fastball pitches this season, which is the fifth-highest among qualified starters.
Mets vs. Orioles Betting Pick
Backing the Mets right now seems a little crazy, as the team looked entirely disengaged in Kansas City after management officially punted the season at the deadline earlier this week. Counting on proud professionals to just accept getting roasted nightly for 40 more games is foolish though, and the statistics work in favor of the Mets at +120 in this matchup.
Peterson has run with some horrid luck, and should trend towards being a below average yet not abysmal starter from here on out as he showed last month. He is quietly right there with Kremer, which is the key to the bet here.
The Mets to win the first five innings at +120 is a good price to target Peterson's resurgence. Playing the game price of +140 is a solid option as well, but the Mets' depleted bullpen is quite concerning and keeps me off of the full game despite the better number.
Pick: Mets F5 ML |
