It’s a pivotal game three in the NLCS as the Los Angeles Dodgers hit the road to Queens, N.Y., to play the New York Mets.
Citi Field witnessed its first playoff series-clinching victory last week when the Mets took care of business against the Philadelphia Phillies. The crowd should play a huge factor again, and it will be a terrific playoff baseball game. Walker Buehler gets the ball for the Dodgers, but Luis Severino will oppose him.
I compiled a 3-leg SGP that pays out at over 5-to-1 on your original investment tonight. Here are the three legs to my Mets vs Dodgers Game 3 parlay.
Mets vs Dodgers Game 3 Parlay Picks
- Mets ML
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Hits
Parlay Odds: +525 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 1
Mets ML -130
I touched on both starting pitchers above, which are crucial to the game's handicap.
Before I bore you with a ton of terrible analytics, the biggest reason we are backing the Mets is that we are fading Buehler.
Buehler's metrics are alarmingly bad, and I am surprised that Dave Roberts will roll the dice with him again. Buehler was shelled in the early portion of his start against the Padres, and I would not be surprised to see a similar result here.
Buehler enters tonight's start with a 25% chase rate and a 19% whiff rate. He's also only striking out roughly 19% of the hitters he faces.
To put that into better perspective, there's not much of a difference between him and Taijuan Walker in those categories. Walker was not only one of the worst pitchers in the NL for the Phillies this season, but you can make the case that he was amongst the bottom of the barrel in starting pitchers across the MLB.
Buehler sports a 46% ground ball rate, which is pretty decent, and he's been a mediocre pitcher in terms of allowing hard contact. Despite that, his expected batting average against was .266, so opposing hitters see the ball exceptionally well when they are up at the plate.
It is a disastrous matchup against a red-hot Mets lineup, who seem to have been on this endless magic carpet ride since the beginning of September. The offense should do plenty of scoring early, and it'll be up to Severino to bridge the gap to the back end of the bullpen.
Severino has been lights out at home in 2024, sporting a 7-2 record and a 2.96 ERA. It's a daunting task against the Dodgers, but Severino's strikeout rate has plummeted in return for an excellent hard-hit contact rate allowed.
The Mets should roll as long as Severino's control is on point.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 2
Pete Alonso 2+ Total Bases
Pete Alonso has been streaky in the postseason thus far, but he's come up clutch multiple times when the Mets needed him the most.
He draws a terrific matchup against Buehler in Game 3.
Alonso is 5-for-14 lifetime against Buehler with four home runs, so it is a golden opportunity to buy low on his recent struggles. Alonso has three homers in the postseason thus far and has compiled seven hits in 29 at-bats.
What draws me to the matchup is that Buehler is not nearly the pitcher he once was. He's battled numerous injuries over the last couple of years. In 16 starts, he compiled a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
Due to the low total set by the market and his inconsistencies throughout the 2024 season, we're essentially getting a bargain price on Alonso's prop. At times, he's looked lost at the plate, but I'd argue that Alonso has been seeing the ball much better lately.
I expect Alonso to drill at least one extra-base hit.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 3
Mookie Betts 1+ Hits
Most of the Dodgers lineup has not seen much of Severino in the past, besides a few who have seen most of the at-bats.
However, a former AL East foe, Mookie Betts, has consistently bashed him.
Betts has hit great against Severino, going 11-for-34 lifetime with five extra-base hits — suitable for a .324 average.
Severino has done an excellent job against right-handers throughout 2024 and has limited hard contact. But, after going hitless in Game 2, Mookie should be able to strike up a base knock with a lot of familiarity working in his favor.
