Mets vs. Dodgers Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -150 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -166 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +125 |
The New York Mets took home the first of a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night on the back of another stellar performance from Pete Alonso. Daniel Vogelbach added three RBI in the 8-6 win as the Dodgers fell below .500 on the year.
Los Angeles looks to bounce back behind ol' reliable Clayton Kershaw. The southpaw is coming off six strong innings against the Giants, where he gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits. He'll face off with Tylor Megill who is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He's taken down the Marlins twice and most recently the Padres a week ago.
How should you bet this battle between National League contenders?
New York Mets
Tylor Megill has flirted with danger but has managed to mitigate damage through his first three starts of the season.
He has posted a stellar, yet unsustainable 92.6 LOB% and .233 BABIP. He's not generating chases out of the zone and his numbers nearly mirror that of last season when he had a 5.31 ERA (4.31 xERA).
Obviously it's a limited sample size, but here's the year-to-year data:
- 2022: 34.8 hard hit% | .253 xBA | .438 xSLG | .321 xwOBA | 6.5 BB% | 10.4 barrel%
- 2023: 33.3 hard hit% | .242 xBA | .438 xSLG | .333 xwOBA | 10.8 BB% | 8.9 barrel%
All this to say that Megill's 2.25 ERA is nothing to gawk at and he should regress toward that high-3, low-4 ERA, per his advanced metrics. This season he's faced the Miami Marlins twice — one of the worst offenses in baseball with an 88 wRC+ — and threw five innings of two-run ball against San Diego.
Megill's velocity has dipped across the board from last season with his four-seamer nearly dropping two miles an hour. He's throwing his slider nearly 7% more this season than last and has incorporated his curveball a bit more, too.
Offensively, the Mets have been slightly above average. They rank 13th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA. But this is a tough team to beat out of the zone. They have the highest walk rate (13.7%) and the third-lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) in MLB. Against left-handed pitching, they are 10th in wRC+ and ninth in isolated power.
Pete Alonso leads the league in home runs and has crushed left-handed pitching this season. He is hitting .360 with four home runs and a 1.328 OPS in 25 at-bats. Francisco Lindor is not too far behind, either, at .296, three home runs and a 1.128 OPS in 27 at-bats. The Mets often go as those two do.
Los Angeles Dodgers
In a very limited sample size, it's hard to gauge whether or not Clayton Kershaw looks beatable, or if it's just early-season rust from the 35-year-old veteran.
Kershaw has thrown three straight six-inning games, logging a pair of quality starts in the process. His xERA is up to 4.28 and his FIP stands around 4.43. It's only been three games, but the southpaw has struggled with xBA (.250), xSLG (.453) and barrel rate (9.8%). All of which would be career lows over an entire season.
Despite dealing with injury last season, Kershaw posted a dominant 2.51 xERA across 22 starts — his lowest since 2016. Not much has changed in Kershaw's arsenal year-to-year; he still has a heavy slider-fastball approach with the occasional curveball.
Control remains a strength for the southpaw, too. His stuff+ is also 42nd among starters, which is a positive indication that Kershaw is still among the best in baseball (his teammate Julio Urias is one spot ahead at 41).
As expected, the Dodgers offense remains one of baseball's best. Even with the losses of Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Gavin Lux, LA is fifth in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA. Will Smith is also on the injured list, testing the depth of this Dodgers lineup.
James Outman has been a bright spot with a .277 average and seven extra base hits in 47 at-bats. Max Muncy's power surge (7 home runs) has provided a nice boost while Freddie Freeman remains one of the best hitters in baseball. He's slashing .328/.416/.522 and nearly has many walks (10) as strikeouts (13).
The Dodgers bullpen grades about below-average and is 20th in xFIP (4.50). The relief group does not strikeout as many batters, but they also rarely walk the opposition. Much of that has to do with their second-worst BABIP of .354, a number that is unsustainable and should positively regress toward the mean.
Mets vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
This is one of the more interesting games on Tuesday night's slate.
Kershaw has been solid across three starts but there have been some cracks in the left-handers metrics. His 4.28 xERA is concerning given a near double-digit barrel rate and .250 xBA. The Mets have been mashing left-handed pitching, though they have struggled with Kershaw in the past, with a combined slashline of .191/.240/.255 across 94 total at-bats.
But this is also a 35-year-old Kershaw that has battled injuries and could very well start his decline. I'm not too keen to jump on the fade Kershaw bandwagon yet, but given Megill's alarming numbers, I'm staying away from the Mets ML despite that being the side with more value.
This is the game I'm expecting Megill to struggle a bit. He draws a matchup against a scary Dodgers lineup and as I've mentioned before, his numbers have been eerily similar year over year. So negative regression will likely hit the right-hander at some point.
There are two ways I'm targeting this fade of Megill from a player props perspective.
The first is targeting noted-Mets killer Freddie Freeman. He went 3-for-4 with a pair of home runs last night which moved him to a career .305 average and 83 extra base hits across 732 at-bats against NY. Freeman also has a favorable matchup against Megill, where he is 4-for-8 in his career against the right-hander. His total bases prop is over 1.5 at even money.
The other is Max Muncy to record a hit. He is 2-for-3 in his career against Megill and should see 4 or 5 at-bats given his cleanup spot in the lineup. It's just (-125) which is a discount given the lefty vs. righty split. He has gotten a hit in four of his last seven games.
