Mets vs. Dodgers Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -175 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +145 |
The New York Mets will put their four-game winning streak on the line in a tough matchup versus Dustin May and the Dodgers. Los Angeles will counter by sending David Peterson to the mound in Monday's series opener at Dodger Stadium.
May has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in 18 1/3 innings; he seems to be trending into top form with his Tommy John surgery now in the rearview mirror.
Peterson has pitched to a 4.91 ERA in three starts, with the bulk of the damage coming in one inning versus the Milwaukee Brewers.
Continue reading for my preview and pick for Mets vs. Dodgers.
New York Mets
Offensively the Mets seem to be fairly similar to the team we saw last season: New York compensates for its lack of power at the plate with a scrappy and irritating approach.
The Mets have struck out at the third-lowest rate (18.2% ) in MLB. Furthermore, they draw walks at a 13.7% clip — the highest mark in baseball. However, New York's .240 xBA is still below league average, and the team's .401 xSLG is middling.
Moreover, New York has achieved those underwhelming offensive metrics against a slightly easier-than-average slate of opposing pitchers through 16 games.
New York has hit to a 16th-ranked wRC+ of 98 versus right-handed pitching and ranks 28th in batting average.
Mets pitcher David Peterson is likely more formidable than his 4.91 ERA and 4.61 xERA suggest.
Peterson has pitched to a solid 4.48 QOPA and really only displayed a true lack of command in his start against Milwaukee. The results from that singular appearance continue to tank Peterson's overall numbers.
His 3.75 xFIP is another positive mark, and he should trend upward as the season progresses.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers ace Dustin May proclaimed that at the end of this spring he felt as good as he had since prior to Tommy John surgery. Then, May proceeded to back up that claim with a strong start to the 2023 campaign. As of writing, May now has +2200 odds to win the National League Cy Young Award.
May's fastball remains one of the liveliest in MLB. Moreover, May's five-pitch arsenal grants him higher strikeout upside than his current 17.6% K-rate suggests.
His 3.31 xERA suggests that negative regression is on the horizon. This is fairly unsurprising given how dominant May's 1.47 mark is this year in particular: Hitters have thrived to open the MLB season.
The Dodgers will be in their less-favorable batting splits against Peterson on Monday. LA has achieved a wRC+ of 104 versus left-handed pitching, compared to a 118 wRC+ against right-handers.
Mets vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
The park conditions at an already-pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium should be favorable to both Peterson and May. In fact, I believe tonight's matchup sets up to be a pitchers duel, despite the game's relatively high total.
May has displayed strong form to open the season. However, New York's scrappy and patient approach at the plate could make for somewhat of a bad matchup. Nevertheless, the Mets have not hit well versus right-handed pitching, and hitting for power should be tough tonight.
If May stays aggressive in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, then he should find success and record a quality start more often than not.
David Peterson is likely undervalued and could succeed versus a Dodgers team that has struck out an alarming rate to start the season.
The over/under of 8.5 at near-even money is a strong price to bet the under in this matchup; I would back this bet down to -120.
Pick: Under 8.5 |
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