Mets vs. Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | +108 |
| Braves Odds | -126 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Is it an overstatement to say this is the most important game of the 2022 MLB season?
The Mets and the Braves have two of the most talented rosters in the league. Atlanta just won the World Series. New York has Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom at the top of its rotation.
The two have been duking it out for the division title all season and it may come down to this game.
This Sunday Night Baseball game has massive implications for both teams and the overall playoff picture.
Who has the edge? Where does the value lie?
New York Mets: Can Bassitt Come up Big for Mets?
I feel like the narrative surrounding the Mets is that they blew it. The Mets had a seven-game division lead in early August and are now on the verge of watching the Braves claim the NL East title.
However, I'm not sure what the Mets could have done better.
New York is 34-22 since August 1st. The lineup is hitting and the pitching staff is throwing well.
There is not a single thing the Mets could've done better. That's a testament to just how good the Braves are.
The Mets season will probably come down to its superstars. Keep an eye on Francisco Lindor.
After a tough first season in New York, Lindor has broken out this year. His 6.7 fWAR is sixth among all MLB players. He's been a plus hitter (129 wRC+) while also being one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball.
What instincts from Francisco Lindor! pic.twitter.com/urCcDHAXL6
— SNY (@SNYtv) October 1, 2022
Lindor has been worth every penny, though he now needs to find another level and help carry his team over the Braves.
The Mets have a higher wRC+ on the season, but the batted-ball statistics aren't close. The Braves are much scarier in the batter's box.
However, the Mets are more disciplined and have a more well-rounded pitching staff. Including this man:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt (RHP)
I wouldn't sleep on Chris Bassitt. He's one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball.
Bassitt's pitched a whopping 180 innings this season and has done so with an ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP in between 3.27 and 3.64. His walk rate is fairly low and he rarely gives up home runs.
There's not a better pitcher you want backing up Scherzer and deGrom.
Bassitt's best quality is avoiding hard contact. He's a sinkerballer and has the profile of a sinkerballer. But he's also done extremely well with his cutter and curveball.
It's also great that Bassitt can avoid barrels so effectively because he's going to need to do so against the Braves.
For what it's worth, Bassitt has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings against Atlanta this season and has allowed just an 87 mph average exit velocity to the hardest hitting team in the NL.
That's pretty impressive.
Atlanta Braves: Peaking at the Right Time of Year
The Braves are so good.
Atlanta started this season in the drudges. They were 23-27 after the month of May.
Since then, the Braves have finished each month with a record of:
- June: 21-6
- July: 18-8
- August: 18-10
- September: 18-8
There are several reasons for Atlanta's turnaround. Most of it revolves around the youngsters.
Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider have turned from rookies to superstars and Michael Harris has broken out as another big-name Atlanta outfielder.
Austin Riley has also become a legit MVP candidate.
Riley has found something. He might not be seeing the ball better, but he's hitting it way harder.
Riley's mashed 38 home runs as a result. He's the linchpin of an Atlanta offense that leads the NL in Barrels and is second in OPS. Riley leads the team in bWAR (6.1) and figures to only improve.
The Braves will ride their young superstars through the postseason and it's that inexperience that gives me a bit of pause.
Especially when the oldest man on the roster is becoming a shell of himself.
Starting Pitcher: Charlie Morton (RHP)
Yes, I'm very low on Charlie Morton right now.
The man once heralded as "Ground Chuck" has a 39% ground-ball rate this season.
His xERA has shot up above 4.00 for the first time in six years. Nothing is quite working in his arsenal and his fastball has been extremely weak (+7 Run Value).
Morton has an ERA and FIP above 5.55 in the month of September. He is in peak fade form as we enter the most important month of the baseball season.
If there's a hole in Atlanta's roster, Morton is it.
Mets-Braves Pick
I am high on Bassitt. I am low on Morton.
I project these bullpens as relatively even. The offensive advantage is with Atlanta, but it's not enough to make me lay juice with the Braves.
The Mets have managed to hold off the Braves so far this season and I think they can win one more when the lights are brightest with a huge starting pitching advantage.
If we're getting plus-money with the Mets, I'm playing them.
Pick: New York Mets ML (+110 at WynnBet Sportsbook) | Play to EV
