Mets vs Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+108 | 9.5 -106 / -114 | +1.5 -182 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -126 | 9.5 -106 / -114 | -1.5 +150 |
It's not often you see Max Scherzer involved in a game with a higher total of 9.5, but that will be the case tonight as he and the Mets take on a high-powered Braves offense.
Scherzer has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 47.2 innings. He'll be opposed by Charlie Morton, who owns a 3.62 ERA in 64.2 innings at the age of 39.
So, where does the betting value lie in Wednesday's NL East matchup? Let's dive into the odds and find our top pick and prediction.
New York Mets
Pete Alonso's at-bats Wednesday will likely draw plenty of attention, as Braves fans would surely love to see him sat down a couple of times after a bit of gamesmanship toward Bryce Elder.
Whether or not Alonso will be kept in check remains to be seen, but he does hold some favorable edges against a right-hander in Morton. Alonso has slugged .540 against righties in 2023 and was actually significantly better against RHPs than LHPs in 2022 with a .532 slug rate.
Alonso is slugging .800 on breaking pitches from righties this season, which is the highest mark in baseball. That should offer a considerable edge over Morton, whose curveball has been thrown 47% of the time and remains his greatest asset.
As a team, the Mets own the 13th-best wRC+ (100) versus right-handed pitching this season. They continue to be disciplined at the plate in those splits and own the third-best BB/K ratio (0.46).
Atlanta Braves
Morton has remained consistently average over the last month with a 4.37 ERA over his last six starts. His curveball continues to rate very well, but he's relying on that strength to cover up a relatively modest profile elsewhere.
Morton's Location+ rating comes in below league average, which certainly hurts the effectiveness of his repertoire. At this point, batters are fairly up to speed with what his current game plan is.
Morton's xERA of 4.33 seems to tell a fair story of what he is at this point. His xFIP of 3.82 is also a step backward compared to last season.
Mets vs Braves Betting Pick
Despite the high-profile names in this matchup, it does seem logical that we see a higher-scoring affair Wednesday in a game that will feature favorable batting conditions.
However, this total moved all the way from 8.5 up to 9.5, so attacking the over no longer holds much value.
A remaining angle I'm interested in betting is Alonso to record over 1.5 total bases at +120 even if betting righty vs. righty isn't overly standard. Alonso hit right-handed pitching more effectively last year and is posting nearly dead-even splits this season.
Forecasters are expecting 10 MPH winds out to left field tonight, which is certainly right in Alonso's wheelhouse.
Nobody in the league is slugging breaking pitches at a better clip against right-handed pitching. Considering Morton is a relatively average starting option at this point, I will happily bet Alonso at a better price than we would often see.
A sprinkle on a home run is also worth a look at +390.
Pick: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) · Alonso HR (+390) |
