Mets vs. Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+143 | 9.5 -117 / -103 | +1.5 -139 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 9.5 -117 / -103 | -1.5 +115 |
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves start a key divisional series in the ATL on Tuesday evening, beginning with a matchup between Carlos Carrasco and Bryce Elder.
These are two pitchers on opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to actual results, but one of these pitchers has been pulling off a high wire act Nik Wallenda would be proud of.
With a nice night for offense added on, I'll be looking to an over, specifically in the first five innings to target these two starters — but it will be more of a lean than a best bet.
New York Mets
Carlos Carrasco has only made six starts in 2023, but he has proven himself one of the more suspect starters in baseball right now.
The 36-year-old righty owns a 5.74 ERA over 31 1/3 innings, and he's earned every bit of that ERA, with a 5.44 xERA, 6.09 FIP, and 5.42 xFIP. All those figures rank among the worst in the league, but what really pops is the 4.4 K-BB%.
That ratio is by far the worst of his career (13.6 percent career rate) and ranks among the worst in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 30 IP, only six of the 168 names sit below Carrasco.
An inability to create whiffs, combined with handing out free passes, is bad combination against any team, but especially a team that puts the ball in play as hard as the Braves. In fact, Atlanta's 37.2 hard hit rate ranks first in baseball this season, and they do better at turning on pitches than any team, with a 45.2 pull rate.
Against a pitcher with as diminished stuff as Carrasco, that's great news for a big, crooked number from the Atlanta offense.
Atlanta Braves
The harder case to make for the over is Bryce Elder. The 24-year-old is having an outstanding sophomore season, sporting a 1.92 ERA that is quite literally the best qualified ERA in all of baseball.
So how do we end up with an over and not just a team total?
You guessed it — all the peripherals. Yes, this is the second season in which Elder has easily posted a lower ERA than FIP. And while I can totally buy this being at least something of a skill for Elder, I don't see it as this big a skill for Elder. I'd project his rest of season ERA above 3.00, compared to his sub-2.00 ERA right now.
His FIP currently sits at 3.42, and that number is lower than either his xFIP (3.64) or xERA (4.17). The xERA is particularly damning, as most pitchers who are able to post a lower ERA than FIP for an extended period are at least able to limit hard contact.
That's not the case for Elder, who has a 47.3% hard hit allowed rate, which ranks in the bottom nine percent of the league. A pedestrian strikeout to walk rate (his 14.0 K-BB% ranks 45th of 69 qualified starters this season) combined with his hard hit ball rate is not a recipe for long-term success.
His best ability is to limit home runs, but it's worth mentioning that he has never pitched in baseball's warmest months, and in a city that is bound to warm up as much as any — and on a Tuesday night that is set to be among the warmer the Braves have played this season — it's going to catch up with him eventually.
Mets vs. Braves Betting Pick
I lean toward the Braves, and I lean to the full game over, but my favorite angle — and the only one I'd bet from this game — is the first five innings over 5.5 runs at BetRivers (-104).
Carrasco is one of the worst pitchers in baseball going up against one of the best offenses in the sport, while Elder is a regression ticking time bomb, who the warmer weather should do no favors for.
Pick: First five innings over 5.5
