Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 9.5 -106 / -114 | +1.5 -184 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 9.5 -106 / -114 | -1.5 +152 |
The Miami Marlins head to Boston on Tuesday to start a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox.
The surprising Marlins have shown no signs of slowing down from their fast start, sitting at a season-high 11 games over .500 after a series win against the Pirates.
Of course, their run differential still suggests they've been the luckiest team in baseball this season (they're a 38-41 team by run differential), but ironically their starting pitcher on Tuesday — Sandy Alcantara — has actually been unlucky this season.
Facing off with Alcantara will be Garrett Whitlock, a decent pitcher, but one who allows tons of contact, which is great news for a certain Marlins player chasing history.
Let's dig in and find some bets.
Miami Marlins
Alcantara is, obviously, coming off of a Cy Young season, so the 5.08 ERA he's currently sporting is a massive disappointment. Many sharp bettors expected a fair amount of regression from Alcantara this season, but I don't think even any of those folks would've projected him for an ERA over 5.00.
And as such, it's not surprising that his projections for the rest of the season sit more around mid-to-high 3.00s. That makes him a solid pitcher for sure — better than this version of what we've seen — but not what we saw last year.
The biggest issue for Alcantara this season has been his inability to strand runners, as his 60.3% left on base rate ranks second-worst among all qualified pitchers this season.
Given that he's a ground ball pitcher who's never had this issue before, it's fair to assume this is mostly bad luck that will dry up in the second half and indeed bring him back closer to that mid-to-high 3.00s ERA.
On the other side of the ball, the Marlins have a player chasing history. Luis Arraez is having a hell of a first season in Miami, rocking a .399 batting average that's getting people to acknowledge that stat for the first time in a decade, at least it feels that way.
He has, of course, gotten a bit lucky by BABIP, but this is a player who's shown extreme bat control throughout his career and is as likely to sustain an "unsustainable" BABIP as any player in baseball.
He has a hit in 60 of his 73 games this season, and he has at least two hits in 32 of his 73 games. That comes out to 43.8% of his games.
At BetRivers, bettors can get Arraez to clear 1.5 hits at +130, or 43.5 percent implied. That's a very narrow edge, and it comes along with the fact that he's likely due for a bit of regression. But his counterpart on Tuesday is part of why I like the bet.
Boston Red Sox
Whitlock is having a solid but otherwise pedestrian 2023 season. His 4.50 ERA looks a bit unlucky by the xERA/FIP/xFIP trio (4.33/4.07/3.92), but what's most notable is his lack of strikeouts.
He ranks in the lower half of the league at 7.63 per nine. But his walk rate is also low at 1.37 BB/9. That means a lot of balls in play, which is good news for Arraez.
The Red Sox bullpen also creates the fewest combined walks and strikeouts of any team in baseball, once again making more good news for an Arraez hits over.
The Red Sox have taken a good chunk of the public money, but it's the Marlins who've taken the sharp money.
Personally, I'm staying away from either side in this game and targeting the player prop instead.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Betting Pick
There are several factors to unspool when it comes to a side in this game (Sandy as a positive regression candidate; the team as a whole being a negative regression candidate), so I'm going to target Arraez as my favorite edge.
Arraez to collect over 1.5 hits is +130 on BetRivers, and in this matchup, I really like that number.
