Marlins vs. Dodgers Odds, Pick
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+235 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 +114 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-290 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 -137 |
The Marlins may not have played high-caliber opponents a week ago, but given how this team has played all season long four wins in six games has to be seen as a success story. Now, the road will get very difficult against the best team in baseball when they travel down to LA after a commanding win over the A's on Sunday.
Can Miami spoil Walker Buehler's first big-league start in almost two years, or will LA's aura only grow with the addition of the two-time All-Star?
Let's get into my Marlins vs. Dodgers pick and prediction for Monday, May 6.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins seem to have talented flamethrowers growing on trees. With their starting rotation rocked by injuries, they'll give another young right-hander a chance on Monday in Roddery Munoz. The 24-year-old has made a fast start to his big-league career by posting a 2.46 ERA in 11 innings pitched versus the Cubs and Rockies, a number backed by some excellent underlying numbers.
Munoz has done well, striking out 14 batters over this span to just three walks, and carries a low .215 expected batting average into this start. It's important to note, though, that sample sizes are often deceiving in the big leagues and Munoz was the owner of an 8.62 ERA in 15 2/3 innings down in Triple-A this season and owns a 5.42 ERA across all levels in his career.
The righty hasn't been much of a strikeout pitcher throughout his career in the minors, and to make matters worse, he has struggled with walks and vulnerable to the home run as a fly ball pitcher. This would seem to put him in a compromising spot against the best offense in baseball, but perhaps the Marlins have unlocked something in him here at the big-league level.
On the offensive side of the ball, not much has changed here for Miami. It hasn't struck out a whole lot at the plate, but that's worked to its detriment considering there are no walks and no power to speak of here. This lineup is predicated on weak ground balls, something that is generally not a path to success.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's anyone's guess how Buehler will look in his first start since June of 2022. Making his way back from a second Tommy John surgery, the 29-year-old started five games down in the minors and built his way up to 75 pitches by the time his last rehab start on April 30 was finished with.
Buehler struggled to limit hits, which was the product of allowing a plethora of fly balls, and finished those five starts by allowing 1.37 home runs per nine. His walk rate didn't look all that pretty, either, but it was probably inflated by one outing. When it was all said and done, his last outing (5 IP, ER, 7 H, 5 K) was encouraging and gave the Dodgers enough confidence that he was ready to graduate to facing big-league hitters.
The two-time All-Star was troubled the last time we saw him in a Dodgers uniform, pitching to a 4.01 ERA with a depleted strikeout rate, but at the very least he was still rolling up ground balls. It may take some time for him to round back into form there, and the strikeouts may never return, leaving the Dodgers with a huge question mark in the rotation over the next month. Given they own the top offense in the league, though, that's something they can afford.
Marlins vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Here's the thing: I don't trust either of these starting pitchers, even though one's facing a poor lineup. Buehler's rehab stint left a lot to be desired, and the sharp decline in ground ball rate was incredibly concerning for a guy who pitched to a lot of contact the last time we saw him at this level.
The Marlins own what's a very fine .630 OPS against fly ball pitchers for their standards, and have done their best work against "finesse" pitchers, who are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks, hitting .238 this season. They're not very attractive numbers, but they do represent the best spot to believe in Miami's bats.
Buehler's pitch count in his last outing likely means he tosses four of five innings, and given the way the back-end of this Dodgers bullpen has performed I'm not exactly in agreement with this wild line.
I have just as many questions about Munoz, however, whose issues with walks and homers should bite him in what's the first serious test of his big-league career. I could easily see him delivering us five runs towards the total all by his lonesome, and on the flip side there are too many questions surrounding Buehler to believe he can make it out of this one unscathed.
At the very least, even if the surgery ultimately helps him return to his 2021 form, he will be rusty in this one having not pitched at this level in nearly two years.
I'm a bit stunned to receive a half-run discount on a total that should be at nine runs or more, and skeptical that Munoz's peripherals in a comically-small sample have bettors believing that he can pitch to the most patient team in baseball.
I'll play this up to nine runs, which is where I think the line should be.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
