Mariners vs. Royals Pick
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+112 | 7 -122O/+100U | +1.5 -200 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-132 | 7 -122O/+100U | -1.5 +164 |
The Kansas City Royals have had an incredible series thus far against the Mariners, including an insane 8-run come-from-behind walk-off win on Friday evening. They've been easily one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball and look to sweep Seattle on Saturday afternoon.
The Mariners, are desperate to salvage the series as they send Goerge Kirby to the mound to take on Royals ace Cole Ragans. Most books have the moneyline close to a pick'em and the over/under at 7.5.
Let's dive deeper into my Mariners vs. Royals pick and prediction for this afternoon's MLB matchup.
Seattle Mariners
George Kirby enters the matchup coming off of a solid start against the A's. Kirby struck out nine over five innings pitched, allowing two earned runs. The metrics suggest the right-hander is due for positive regression moving forward, as his xERA is 3.05.
Kirby was never known as a pitcher who's going to generate a lot of strikeouts, but he is doing an excellent job limiting free passes. Against a good Royals team, he must stay that way.
Kirby's fastball velocity, chase rate, and hard-hit rate are all in the upper echelon amongst all MLB starters. He may not rack up nine strikeouts like his last start, but he is a safe bet to have a solid start on the mound.
For the Mariners' offense, it is a nightmare matchup against Cole Ragans. We'll discuss Ragans more down below, but being dead last in strikeouts per game is a recipe for disaster heading in.
Somehow, someway, the Mariners are going to have to scrap a couple of runs on the board late to salvage the series. Their approach should be to make Ragans work hard early so he can drive up that pitch count.
Kirby will keep them in the game. So, if they can force an early exit from Ragans, I think they'll have a shot to steal the victory late. But, it's tough to back them because of the offensive matchup.
Kansas City Royals
Cole Ragans is going to win the Cy Young award some day, and he is currently on the trajectory to pitch in his first All-Star Game this season. On Sunday morning, he'll wake up licking his chops to see the lineup he gets to face.
As mentioned above, the Mariners rank last in strikeouts per game and Ragans averages 11 punch-outs per nine innings. Ragans has incredible stuff and ranks in the upper tier of MLB pitchers in the following categories:
- Fastball Velo
- Chase Rate%
- Whiff Rate%
- Exit Velocity
- Barrell Rate
Not only are the strikeout numbers impressive, but he is limiting a lot of hard contact. He struggles with command occasionally, so that'll be key in his start on Sunday.
The Royals hitters are hitting .260 lifetimgie against Kirby through 50 at-bats, so there is some success to be encourage about. But, Kirby is a tough pitcher to crack and he is not going to allow any gimmes while out on the mound.
After such a wild, emotional weekend for the Royals, I have a feeling their offense might be a bit sleepy at the beginning of the game. The market suggests that it is a dead-even contest, and with a low total, I have a feeling we are in for a pitcher's duel.
Mariners vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
With both of these starters on the mound, I could not go elsewhere but target the under. I want to avoid the variables of the late-game heroics from the Royals or either bullpen potentially imploding so I'll roll the dice with under 3.5 on the first five innings line.
Kirby is still due for positive regression despite his good outing in the last time out, and I absolutely love the matchup for Ragans. Both offenses are in trouble on Sunday afternoon, and the full-game total has already dropped half-a-run since open.
We are getting a nice, even-money price at FanDuel for under 3.5. I'd go snag that now before the market continues to go to work.
