Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
+120 | 9 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -178 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Spread |
-142 | 9 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +146 |
After taking Game 1 of the series by a score of 4-0, the Mariners will once again take on the Rangers on Wednesday night.
Tuesday’s game gave Seattle a half-game edge on the AL West over Texas, but this race remains close early in the season. With a win tonight, Texas could go right back on top of the divisional race.
However, I think some early season numbers are skewed by small sample sizes, causing the market to misprice this matchup.
Let's dive into my Mariners vs. Rangers pick as we take a look at the MLB odds for Wednesday, April 24.
Seattle Mariners
Bryce Miller will take the mound for Seattle tonight. He has had an ideal start to the season with a 3-1 record and 1.85 ERA. In each of his last three starts, he has gone at least six innings and has allowed just one total run.
While the ERA is impressive, the underlying numbers show that at least some regression is coming. Miller’s xERA comes in at 3.37, and his FIP sits at 3.65. These are still both strong numbers, but it’s almost double his current ERA.
Miller has been helped by his 88.6% strand rate, which typically would come back to earth as we get a bigger sample.
Miller’s Stuff+ of 105 ranks 26th out of 113 pitchers with 20-plus innings on the season.
Location and contact metrics have hampered Miller to this point in his young career. Last season, he had a barrel percentage in the ninth percentile and an average exit velocity allowed in the 10th percentile. Despite the positive results this year, he's still 15th percentile in barrel percentage and 35th percentile in exit velocity.
A positive development for Miller this season is that he has increased his strikeout rate from the 40th percentile to the 69th percentile, as his whiff rate has increased from the 36th to the 70th percentile.
However, his walks have increased from a 4.8% walk rate last season to 7.6% this year.
Miller’s fastball and off-speed run values are both in the 91st percentile or better, according to Baseball Savant. He's above average by most non-batted ball metrics. There are a few concerning signs in Miller’s underlying metrics this season, but he's still a solid pitcher.
Seattle has had mixed results on offense this season, ranking 22nd in wOBA and 14th in wRC+. The M's walk at the fifth-highest rate in the game but strike out at the second-highest rate.
The Statcast metrics for the Mariners are positive so far, as they rank seventh in exit velocity, sixth in hard-hit rate and 14th in barrel rate.
Texas Rangers
Getting the nod for the Rangers will be former first-round pick Jon Gray. The 32-year-old Gray is in his third season as a member of the Rangers, where he has proven to be a capable starter.
This season, Gray sports a 3.15 ERA with a 3.46 FIP but an xERA of 5.90. He hasn’t benefited from stranding runners as much as he has from some likely unsustainable strikeout numbers. Gray has struck out 28.4% of his batters faced this season, by far the highest mark of his career.
When juxtaposed against his Stuff metrics, however, this is a bit perplexing. Gray ranks just 105th out of 113 pitchers in Stuff+. He has been locating his pitches well, ranking 26th in Location+, but I'm concerned for him going forward.
Gray’s fastball velocity has dipped from the 79th percentile to the 53rd percentile, which is the lowest mark of his career. This represents a loss of about 1.2 mph on his average fastball from last season to this season, as he's now sitting at 94.5 mph.
Gray ranks in the third percentile in barrel rate, 19th percentile in exit velocity 17th percentile in hard-hit rate, sixth percentile in xISO and ninth percentile in xSLG. These numbers show the reasoning for the divergence between his actual ERA and his xERA.
To this point in the season, the Rangers offense ranks 10th in wOBA and 12th in wRC+. Their Statcast metrics don’t quite back this production up, however, as they rank 23rd in hard-hit rate, 20th in barrel rate and 28th in average exit velocity.
Mariners vs Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don’t think Miller’s ERA will remain below 2.00 for much longer, but I also like this matchup for him. I’m not going to fade the better pitcher as an underdog here.
Texas’ batted-ball numbers haven’t been impressive to this point. I think its offense may be a bit overvalued in the market right now, while Seattle is likely undervalued for the same reasons.
Gray has looked good to start the season, but his velocity is down, and his Stuff+ numbers don’t back up this insane increase in strikeout rate. So, I’ll be looking to fade that and trust his xERA number.
The Mariners are slight underdogs on Wednesday, but I think they're a good bet to take Game 2 of this series after shutting out the Rangers on Tuesday night. I like taking Seattle at the current number of +104 and would take it down to -110.
