The Oakland A's took care of business last night against the Seattle Mariners after Joey Estes flirted with baseball immortality.
Estes retired the first 18 Mariners who came up to the plate before allowing a leadoff double in the seventh inning to J.P Crawford.
The Mariners are looking to get back on track with Bryan Woo on the mound, who has been excellent since returning from injury. Woo enters with a 1.30 ERA and 0.58 WHIP.
He'll face off against Oakland's J.P Sears.
Sears has been mediocre thus far, with only 45 strikeouts in 67 innings.
The Mariners are -142 on the ML, with the under/over set at 7.5 at most shops.
So, I cooked up a nice three-leg SGP for the matchup that pays a little over 4-1 odds, and each leg is extremely reasonable.
Here's my Mariners vs Athletics MLB Parlay: SGP Picks for Thursday, June 6.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mariners vs Athletics Same Game Parlay (Thursday, June 6)
- Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
- Mitch Garver Over 0.5 Hits (-150)
- Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+120)
- Parlay Odds: +401 (bet365)
Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Since returning from the IL, Woo has been dealing with some minor injuries, but he has not missed any starts.
He's been nothing but terrific thus far, especially in bringing his walk rate down.
Walks have been Woo's biggest issue thus far in his young career, but he's flipped the script this season, seeing drastic decreases in strikeouts. Woo ranks below the 50th percentile of qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and whiff rate.
Then again, his expected ERA is only 2.08, so he's not entirely overperforming his 1.30 ERA.
Ultimately, his arsenal is too good to sustain such low strikeout rates. What better way to get back on track than by pitching to the A's? They strike out at the second-highest rate in baseball, and I expect Woo to pick at least six of them on Thursday.
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Mitch Garver Over 0.5 Hits (-150)
Garver will presumably be behind the dish on Thursday afternoon, and he has always been a much better hitter against left-handed pitching. This year, his batting average is 70 points higher against southpaws than against righties.
Garver is also suffering from some poor luck at the dish, as his batted ball metrics are much better than last season despite slightly worse results.
With a low total, it's not surprising to see such low juice for Garver to record just a single hit.
Sears is nothing special, and he's not missing enough bats for me to worry.
I'm confident that Garver will be able to pick up a hit with good fortune looming over his shoulder.
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Mariners -1.5 (+120)
It's hard to sell an offense that is dead last in strikeouts per game and coming off a rough night at the plate.
But I think Sears and the A's bullpen are in for a rude awakening.
I won't discount the back end of the A's pen, as it is a big reason why they have a 3.38 reliever ERA.
But, this play is all about attacking Sears and the middle relief arms.
Sears isn't striking out anyone and allows too much hard contact. His overall metrics are not too terrible, but his 4.85 expected FIP suggests he's due for regression.
I will take the risk with a Mariners offense that will get a nice bump against a contact pitcher, and I envision a scenario where they force Sears to rack up a high pitch count.
If that happens, they are a good bet to bounce back after looking completely lifeless last night.
I am too confident in Woo today to think the A's can muster any offense, so I'm confident the M's will cover the run line.
