The Los Angeles Dodgers go for a World Series sweep of the New York Yankees in Game 4 on Tuesday night. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX with other viewing and streaming options that include MLB.TV, YouTube TV and Fubo.
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 odds (via BetMGM) have the Yankees as -135 moneyline favorites and the Dodgers as +105 underdogs. The over/under is 8.5 total runs (-105o / -115u). The Dodgers are -190 to cover the run line (+1.5) and the Yankees are +155 to cover the spread (+1.5).
Find my World Series preview and Dodgers vs Yankees predictions,picks, and best bets, plus Game 4 starting lineups, key injuries, betting trends, weather forecast and more below.
My Dodgers vs Yankees Predictions for Game 4
- Dodgers vs Yankees picks: Under 8.5 (+100)
My Dodgers vs Yankees best bet is Under 8.5, where I see value at +100. The best line at the time of writing is available at FanDuel — you can find more MLB picks on our MLB page.
Dodgers vs Yankees Odds, Predictions, Best Bets
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+115 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -190 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +155 |
- Dodgers vs Yankees Moneyline: Dodgers +115, Yankees -135
- Dodgers vs Yankees Over/Under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Dodgers vs Yankees Run Line: Dodgers +1.5 (-190), Yankees -1.5 (+155)
- Dodgers vs Yankees Best Bet: Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 Probable Pitchers
| RHP Ben Casparius (LAD) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 15-7 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 2.16 / 3.49 | ERA /xERA | 3.50 / 3.83 |
| 1.73 / 3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 4.14 / 4.36 |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 21.6% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 23.8% | GB% | 35.6% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 101 | Location+ | 95 |
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 Previews, Predictions, Lineups
Dodgers Game 4 Betting Preview
Dodgers Game 4 Lineup
- Shohei Ohtani (DH)
- Mookie Betts (RF)
- Freddie Freeman (1B)
- Teoscar Hernández (LF)
- Max Muncy (3B)
- Kiké Hernández (CF))
- Gavin Lux (2B)
- Will Smith (C)
- Tommy Edman (SS)
- Starting Pitcher/Opener: Ben Casparius
Short of starting pitching options, Los Angeles is going with a bullpen game in Game 4.
Because of a plethora of injuries, the Dodgers only have three healthy starting pitchers (Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler), so they will do what they have already done three times throughout this postseason. The full bullpen game has worked two of three times for L.A., and the reason it worked those two times is because manager Dave Roberts went to his best relievers first.
When the Mets blew up the Dodgers' bullpen in Game 2 of the NLCS, it was because L.A. went with Landon Knack in the second inning — he got tagged for five runs.
In Game 6 of the NLCS, Roberts opened with Michael Kopech and then rolled out Ben Casparius, Anthony Banda, Ryan Brasier, Evan Phillips, Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen. Following Sunday's off-day and Walker Buehler surprisingly going five strong on Monday night, I expect Roberts to go for the killshot in Game 4; I do not expect long relievers like Knack or Brent Honeywell in the early portion of the game.
The Dodgers bullpen has been overperforming in relation to the expected metrics, but they've been getting a ton of swings and misses during the World Series — their K/9 is sitting at 12.27. The Yankees have been drilling fastballs all season, but the Dodgers 'pen has been throwing them a heavy dose of breaking pitches, which has neutralized the New York attack.
While solid, the Dodgers offense has not been out of this world during the World Series. What they have been good at is grinding out at-bats and driving up the pitch count of the Yankees' starting pitchers. They knocked out Game 3 starter Clarke Schmidt after only 2 2/3 innings, drawing four walks against him in the process.
With that being said, it's basically been Freddie Freeman and Tommy Edman powering the Dodgers. With the Yankees heavily utilizing their bullpen in Game 3, the Dodgers were only able to muster five hits, so the same thing could happen in Game 4.
In addition, Shohei Ohtani hurt his shoulder in Game 2 and it's quite clear that injury is impacting him after what we saw from him on Monday night.
Yankees Game 4 Betting Preview
Yankees Game 4 Lineup
- Gleyber Torres (2B)
- Juan Soto (RF)
- Aaron Judge (CF)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B)
- Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
- Anthony Rizzo (1B)
- Anthony Volpe (SS)
- Austin Wells (C)
- Alex Verdugo (LF)
- Starting Pitcher: Luis Gil
Yankees Game 4 starter Luis Gil has really good stuff — he also some pretty clear flaws.
He finished the season with a 110 Stuff+, but he was also wild at times. His BB/9 was up at 4.57 and he had a Location+ of 95. He walked three batters in Game 4 against the Guardians in the ALCS, and given how patient the Dodgers have been, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in some trouble.
Gil only has three pitches — a fastball, slider, and changeup — and each one offers a ton of movement and generates high whiff rates as a result.
He goes to his fastball about 50% of the time, but the reason why his walk rate is so high is he's trying to generate swings and misses outside the zone, but hitters aren't swinging at his heaters at a high rate. Only 47% of his fastballs are in the zone and hitters are swinging at 26.3% of them, which is right at the MLB average.
For Gil, it's a poor matchup on paper. The Dodgers had the third-highest walk rate and the fifth-lowest outside the zone swing rate in baseball during the regular season. Schmidt tried to get the Dodgers to chase, to no avail.
What the Yankees have struggled with during the postseason his hitting breaking pitches. They are the best fastball-hitting team, crushing them during this postseason with a .434 xwOBA. However, against any type of breaking pitch, the Yankees only have a .200 xBA and .277 xwOBA.
On top of that, they have a 37% whiff rate, so the Dodgers 'pen will without a doubt be throwing them a lot of curveballs, sliders and sweepers.
Dodgers vs Yankees Lines, Game 4 Over/Under Betting Analysis
Every game for the Yankees is a must-win at this point, so if Luis Gil gets in any sort of trouble, he's getting yanked by manager Aaron Boone. That isn't necessarily a bad thing because the top end of the Yankees bullpen has been quite good during the playoffs. Even during the World Series, they've been solid outside a few blemishes.
The Dodgers seem to have figured out and the bullpen game. This will be their fourth time utilizing it and Dave Roberts seems to have a good feel on which buttons to push. By utilizing his superior relievers off the bat, the Dodgers can play matchups and get their relievers into situations they can best succeed.
In addition to that, really all the Dodgers bullpen has to do is set up their breaking pitches and they should be able to keep the Yankees offense at bay.
I think the total is far too high for Game 4. If not for that Freddie Freeman grand slam in Game 1, every game in this World Series would have gone under the closing total.
I only have 7.9 runs projected with both bullpens heavily involved, so I like the value on Under 8.5 at +100.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Moneyline
Despite a commanding 3-0 series lead, the Dodgers find themselves as +124 moneyline underdogs while the Yankees are -148 favorites. I have no play on either side.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
Like the moneyline, I have no play on either side of the run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
I detailed above why I believe there's value on betting under 8.5
Pick: Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y. |
| Date: | Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX / MLB.TV, Fubo, YouTube TV |
Yankees vs Dodgers Key Injuries
Yankees Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Carlos Rodon | Blister (reportedly will be ready for potential Game 6) |
| 1B Jon Berti | Hip flexor strain (left off World Series roster) |
Dodgers Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| DH Shohei Ohtani | Left shoulder subluxation (in Game 4 starting lineup) |
| RHP Shohei Ohtani | Right elbow surgery (not pitching in World Series) |
| RHP Evan Phillips | Right shoulder (left off World Series roster) |
