Can the Dodgers, who have won eight of 10, remain a comfortable four games in front of the Diamondbacks in the division, or will we see Zac Gallen take control of this one and get Arizona off to a good start as we head into the weekend?
Let's get into my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Dodgers vs Diamondbacks pick: Dodgers ML (-129)
My Dodgers-Diamondbacks pick is on Dodgers moneyline, where I see value at a line of -129. The best line is available at BetRivers, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +140 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| Kershaw | Stat | Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 10-6 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.72/3.81 | ERA /xERA | 3.65/4.03 |
| 2.89/4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29/3.78 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 12.7% | K-BB% | 14.3% |
| 40.9% | GB% | 46.4% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Kenny Ducey's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Kershaw to Start
Thursday marked the second straight game in which the Dodgers scored six runs, and they've now scored six or more in all but two of their last eight games.
Despite that, they rank just 14th in runs scored over the last week of play and have some clear areas for improvement, with a 6.9% walk rate and waning .185 Isolated Power over that span while hitting just .246.
This team has returned all of its absent bats to the lineup over the last few weeks and is clearly coming together as the days go on. It remains a stingy team when it comes to limiting strikeouts.
The Dodgers will need to continue to make gains at the plate and learn to hit for more contact here in Arizona, where fly balls won't be rewarded the same way they were during their long nine-game homestand.
Unfortunately for Clayton Kershaw, that could be a bit of a problem. It's not as if he's rolled up a ton of ground balls, but with a troubling 32.3% line-drive rate — which is almost nine points higher than average the amount of space at Chase Field — that could mean plenty of extra bases for the speedy Diamondbacks.
Kershaw has made just six starts since his activation off the injured list a month ago, and other than his rocky outing against the Rays last week, he's been decently effective with a 3.72 ERA. His Expected Batting Average stands at a troubled .277, but he's limited opponents to a low .376 Expected Slugging as he continues to pound the zone with success.
On the whole, he hasn't replicated the strikeout numbers that were still present in his age-35 season, but he's flashed that upside on four occasions and should have a fair chance of exploiting a good matchup if it presents itself.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Can Gallen Bounce Back?
The Diamondbacks sit sixth in wRC+ over the last week of play, continue to do great work in the power department (.185 ISO) and populate the bases with a ton of walks.
They're hitting .275 and capitalizing on the bases with their speed. They've shown they're a multi-faceted offense that can bat you in a number of different ways.
Arizona has only seemed to grow more dangerous against left-handers, too, ranking fifth in wRC+ in that split and sixth against right-handers, though its ISO has dropped almost 30 points against southpaws with a slight uptick in strikeouts.
It's been its league-leading .277 average against lefties that's really done the bulk of the damage, as the team sits at just .253 in the reverse split.
As for Gallen, he continues to be a puzzling pitcher as we hit the final month of the season. He owns a 4.03 ERA this month and pitched to a 5.10 in July, falling short in the strikeout department and enduring a .255 xBA, which is a point higher than the troubling .254 xBA we spoke about a bunch last year.
He's limited extra-base hits well, but he's also put more runners on via the walk. While he's made an improvement in the exit velocity department, he's still struggling to get outs on the ground balls he's rolling up.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Dodgers should be in a great spot against Gallen, ranking fourth in OPS to ground-ballers while continuing to put the ball in play a ton.
While they'll need to learn how to hit for contact, I do think the right-hander should afford them that opportunity on Friday. His issues in the walk department should help a historically patient team get back to taking pitches and drawing free passes.
I'm also a fan of Kershaw here, considering he's suppressed some powerful offenses to this point in the season. He'll draw a team that's hit for much more contact and significantly less power against southpaws this year.
Arizona shouldn't be able to draw the walks at the rate it's grown accustomed to, and with Kershaw's excellent xSLG and the Diamondbacks' issues abound in driving the ball both at home and against lefties, I think he should have yet another comfortable outing.
It seems evident the Dodgers are growing into their own offense right now, and I think they're undervalued here even on the road.
Pick: Dodgers -129
Moneyline
The Diamondbacks opened at +112 to win this one, and after some marginal fluctuation, they remain at nearly the same price, coming in at +113 in the consensus odds. We've tracked some sharp action and big money coming in on Arizona.
Run Line (Spread)
The Diamondbacks have gone 9-7 to the run line as home underdogs this year, while the Dodgers are 25-27 as road favorites this year. With that said, L.A. has hit the run line in seven of its last nine games — all of which have come as favorites.
Over/Under
The total opened up at 8.5 runs, and remains there after a brief trip up to nine. The sharp action here is hitting the under, and we've seen a marginal move that way as the day has worn on Friday.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- 73% of the bets and 36% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
- 92% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the over.
- 70% of the bets and 40% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- The Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The Dodgers are 30-34 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in three of Dodgers' last five games.
- The totals have gone over in 39 of Dodgers' 68 last games at home.
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- The Diamondbacks are 3-2 in their last five games.
- The Diamondbacks are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Diamondbacks are 37-31 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in three of Diamondbacks' last five games.
- The totals have gone over in 40 of Diamondbacks' 66 last games at home.
