The Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals on May 14, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSKC.
Find my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Royals vs Astros Prediction
- Royals vs Astros picks: Astros ML -120 (Play to -135)
My Royals vs Astros best bet is Astros moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Astros Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +105 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -125 |
Royals vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Lorenzen (KC) | Stat | LHP Colton Gordon (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.57/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 0.00/0.00 |
| 4.62/4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 0.00/0.00 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 0.00 |
| 13.5% | K-BB% | 0% |
| 39.9% | GB% | 0% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | N/A |
| 104 | Location+ | N/A |
Kenny Ducey’s Royals vs Astros Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Nothing Negative From Lorenzen
The Kansas City Royals will trot out 33-year-old veteran Michael Lorenzen opposite a pitcher who will be making his big-league debut. While there's never been a ton to gloat about with the right-hander, there's been very little you can say from a negative standpoint.
Lorenzen enters his ninth start of the season as one of the most firmly average pitchers in the league, which isn't the worst thing in the world. We know what we're getting out of him at this point, which is a ton of contact — predominantly in the air.
Lorenzen has managed to bring his perennially high walk rate down to a reasonable place at 7.3%, which not only ranks right around the top 30% of all pitchers, but would be a career-best (discounting a very small sample in his second career season).
The veteran is going to be susceptible to power with his fly-ball approach. His Expected Slugging Percentage has come in over .410 in the past three seasons and this year, he's trending towards a career-high in that department at .442.
That would put him around 40 points higher than the league average — and his career average — but with his newfound control, the potential damage against him may not be unsalvageable.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Gordon to Challenge Royals
Houston will counter with a 26-year-old rookie making his big-league debut. If Ronel Blanco's first year in 2024 was any indicator, this could be a winning formula.
Colton Gordon was effective in Triple-A last year after struggling in his first taste of that level in 2023. He finished with a 3.94 ERA, pitching to predominantly fly balls and very few walks.
This season, he's taken a further step forward, with a microscopic 4.7% walk rate and an improved 25.3% strikeout rate.
Under the hood, we see there are some similarities to Lorenzen. As a fly-baller, Gordon can be victimized by teams that can hit for power, and his 8.5% barrel rate and 45.3% hard-hit rate down in Triple-A sit in the bottom 22% of the level.
He's been nothing but a strike-thrower, however, so he'll challenge a relatively weak Royals offense to beat him.
He's missed bats at a merely average clip, however, and we generally see strikeout numbers dip — along with ground-ball numbers — initially when graduating to the big-league level.
That means this will be a golden opportunity for Kansas City to show that it can hit for power.
Royals vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Royals have found a little something in the last two weeks, ranking 12th in wRC+ and sporting a middling, yet improved, .150 Isolated Power.
They're free swingers (walking just 6% of the time over that span) with a low 16.3% strikeout rate.
And that falls in line with what we've seen all season.
The tricky part here for Kansas City is its inability to hit lefties. It ranks just 27th in wRC+ to southpaws with a terrible .062 ISO. On top of that, its .689 OPS against fly-ball pitchers ranks 21st and is nothing close to its 12th-ranked .734 OPS against ground-ballers.
Gordon has pitched to many more ground balls this season, but he still wouldn't profile as a ground-ball pitcher. With an expected dip in contact on the ground in his first taste of big-league action, I'm going to handicap this one as if he'll give up a ton of fly balls.
I'm hesitant to back the Royals here given their struggles both against lefties and in hitting for power, and on the flip side, the Astros have been much stronger against fly-ball pitchers, with a .769 OPS, which is sixth-best in the league.
Houston has been nearly equal with Kansas City in the power department of late, but it's hit the ball better and will test Lorenzen's improved control with one of the highest walk rates around.
I'm not a huge Gordon buyer — at least not yet — but this is a matchup in which you have to take the better offense. There's no question which side has that.
Pick: Astros ML (-120)
Moneyline
The sharp money is hitting Kansas City here, likely due to the uncertainty surrounding Gordon. That's where the predominant number of tickets — and the handle — is headed.
Run Line (Spread)
Kansas City is 6-4 to the run line in its past 10 games and 13-11 as the underdog.
Over/Under
The sharps are also aligned on the under, despite 48% of the tickets and 68% of the money hitting the over.
With these two teams starving for power I'd be inclined to lean that way.
Royals vs Astros Betting Trends
