The Houston Astros (70-62) and Philadelphia Phillies (78-54) conclude their three-game interleague series on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch for this series finale is set for 4:05 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on MLB Network for out-of-market viewers.
On Tuesday, the Phillies continued their winning ways with a dominant win over the Astros as Aaron Nola tossed a gem and stifled Houston over seven shutout innings. The Astros look to avoid the sweep on Wednesday as they send Spencer Arrighetti to the mound. He'll be opposed by Phillies right-hander Tajuan Walker.
Astros vs Phillies odds for Wednesday have the Astros as -122 moneyline favorites and the Phillies as +104 underdogs, with an over/under of 10 (-105o / -115u) at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Astros are +130 to cover the run line (spread) at -1.5 while the Phillies are +156 to cover +1.5. Notably, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (rest) is not in the starting lineup for Philadelphia.
Let's dive into my betting preview for this MLB interleague finale and my Astros vs Phillies prediction and picks for Wednesday, August 28.
Astros vs Phillies Prediction: First Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
- Astros vs Phillies pick: Astros F5 Moneyline
Astros vs Phillies Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 10 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +130 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 10 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -156 |
Projected Starting Pitchers for Astros-Phillies
| RHP Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | Stat | RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-11 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 4.94/3.92 | ERA /xERA | 6.26/6.76 |
| 4.18/4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 6.34/4.94 |
| 1.68 | WHIP | 1.58 |
| 17.1% | K-BB% | 8.7% |
| 34.7% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 99 | Location+ | 97 |
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Favorable Matchup for Jose Altuve
Hand up, the Stros were a bad bet yesterday. Justin Verlander was not sharp and had no business dueling with Aaron Nola yesterday.
Spencer Arrighetti gets the ball on Wednesday and he is one of the most fascinating arms to examine in the league. Notably, he has a K/9 rate of nearly 11 but has a BB/9 rate of 4.09.
As you can see from the head-to-head starting pitcher chart above, Arrighetti's xERA is one run lower than his current ERA due to his ability to generate punchouts. But, you can also see why his WHIP is 1.68.
Arrighetti is also getting hit hard and allows too many fly balls to be consistently effective. If he is not missing bats, there is a good chance that the opposing offense is hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Luckily for the 'Stros bats, they'll get a much tastier matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has some of the same issues as Arrighetti, but exponentially worse.
Jose Altuve has mashed against Walker in the past, going 11-for-32 with four extra-base hits. As a team, the Astros should be able to take advantage of Walker's propensity to allow hard contact and frequent free passes.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Is Taijuan Walker Toast?
Taijuan Walker has had a respectable career, but it's evident that his decline phase has arrived. Walker is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, and that is not a hyperbolic statement.
He finds himself below the 10th percentile in the following categories:
- xERA
- Chase%
- Fastball Velo
- Whiff%
- Avg Exit Velo
- Barrel Rate
- xBA
These are nightmare statistics heading into a matchup against an extremely balanced Astros offense. There is no reason to believe Walker will be effective on Wednesday afternoon — it would take a lot of good fortune and Michael's secret stuff from Space Jam.
If you can't miss bats, walk a lot of hitters and allow frequent hard contact, what purpose are you serving? I'd be stunned if Walker spun a gem.
The good news for the Phillies is they have a reasonable offensive matchup themselves. Arrighetti racks up punchouts, but the Phillies do not strike out very often.
Their numbers are worse against right-handed pitching, but their bats are primed to bounce back after cooling off over the last couple of days. Arrighetti typically has a high pitch count due to his control issues, which could lead to ample run-scoring opportunities for the Phils' bats.
With Walker on the mound, I can't back the Phils' here and I'll be looking to fade them in the early going.
Astros vs Phillies Betting Analysis: F5 Prediction
I am concerned with Arrighetti's inconsistencies on the mound, but I am far more confident the Astros bounce back after being shut out on Tuesday. Walker has no chance of stifling the Astros, so I am going to target Houston in the first five (F5) innings.
The Phillies may end up having success against Arrighetti, but the 'Stros' offense has the upper hand. It is a slam-dunk play for me, and I expect the Astros to have a bit more motivation to avoid the sweep.
Pick: Astros F5 ML
Moneyline
BET Astros
I think the Astros pour it on early against Walker, whose horrific metrics suggest he could implode. The uncertainty of Arrigihetti is holding me back from making this my official play, which is why I wanted to target the first portion of the game.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass
I lean towards the Astros' run-line, but this is a pass for me. Both offenses should have great success, which leads me to my lean on the total below.
Over/Under
BET Over
Walker is a trainwreck and Arrighetti is prone to allowing free passes and hard contact. Both offenses have been stagnant over the last couple of days, so I expect them both to bounce back.
I see a lot of sharp money pouring in on the over, so I am more than comfortable targeting it despite the large total. I’d be stunned if this finale was a low-scoring contest.
