The Cincinnati Reds host the Houston Astros on May 9, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Reds are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +132 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Reds Prediction
- Astros vs Reds Pick: Astros ML (+120 or Better)
My Astros vs Reds best bet is on Houston to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Reds Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +132 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -156 |
- Astros vs Reds moneyline: Astros +132, Reds -156
- Astros vs Reds over/under: 8.5 (-105 / -115)
- Astros vs Reds spread: Astros +1.5 (-164), Reds -1.5 (+136)
Astros vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| Spencer Arrighetti (RHP, HOU) | Stat | Chase Burns (RHP, CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 1.96 / 5.73 | ERA / xERA | 2.20 / 2.98 |
| 3.88 / 4.80 | FIP / xFIP | 3.43 / 3.16 |
| 10.9% | K-BB% | 20.5% |
| 36.2% | GB% | 48.0% |
| .263 | BABIP | .247 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 90 | Location+ | 105 |
Astros vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.1% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI.
This trend has proven reliable across five consecutive seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced, likely due to a lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
Astros vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
Sure, the Astros have no pitching. And sure, Spencer Arrighetti isn’t the starting pitcher to buck that trend.
However, Houston’s offense is elite, and the Astros should absolutely mash at Great American Ballpark — I think the extra favorable hitting conditions could inject some variance into the matchup, which I believe helps the road pup with the better lineup.
Cincinnati’s offense has been much better lately, but the Reds have struggled over the course of the season (90 wRC+, 26th).
Plus, while Houston ranks 29th in reliever xFIP (4.76), Cincinnati is the only MLB team that’s worse (4.84). My numbers actually project the Astros’ bullpen with a higher ceiling.
The biggest reason the Reds are such considerable favorites is because of Chase Burns, who has looked fantastic so far this season. But I think he’s due for some general BABIP (.247) and strand regression (91.4%), and that might show up in this very difficult matchup.
Ultimately, I think this game should be closer to a coin flip than the line suggests, and our PRO betting system backs that up, indicating the Astros are undervalued.
Pick: Astros ML (+120 or Better)
