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Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Pitching Outs +100
Guardians vs Orioles | 6:35 p.m. ET
Tanner Bibee has established himself atop the Guardians rotation in his sophomore campaign in the majors. Pitching to a 3.65 ERA, he’s helped to stabilize a pitching staff that’s dealt with losing ace Shane Bieber for the season.
Nonetheless, I’m fading Bibee on his pitching-outs line tonight.
Bibee has gone under this line in 10 of his 15 starts this season, including five of seven on the road. The righty has several indicators that I look for when betting on the under of an outs prop.
First, he throws a lot of pitches. At 4.04 pitches per plate appearance, he ranks 15th out of 121 qualifiers. While that stems from his swing-and-miss arsenal (80th percentile in Whiff Rate), it does require him to limit baserunners to pitch deep into games.
That may be a tough task tonight against this Orioles lineup. Over the last month against right-handed pitching, the Orioles lead all of baseball in wRC+ (152), OPS (.891) and OBP (.347). With a left-handed heavy lineup — I’m expecting six lefties in the order tonight — that plays into Bibee’s worse split where he has a .781 OPS and a .340 wOBA allowed.
These lefties also may get a leg up later in the game because Bibee has struggled the second and third time through a batting order by allowing an OPS of .825 and .816 respectively. Even with some relievers likely unavailable tonight, including all-world closer Emmanuel Clase, there are enough rested arms in the Guardians' top-shelf bullpen.
Tonight I have Bibee projected at 16 outs, making this one of my favorite bets on the slate.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Pitching Outs +100 (DraftKings | Play to -125)
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