Giants vs Twins Odds
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-122 | 8 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -205 |
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+102 | 8 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +170 |
A scuffling Giants side will look to build upon a highly impressive offensive performance from Friday's series opener, in which they touched up a high quality arm in Twins right-hander Joe Ryan for five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings en route to a 7-1 win.
San Francisco will start Hayden Birdsong in the second game at Oracle Park. Birdsong has shown positive signs to start his MLB career, despite holding a 4.66 ERA in his initial 14 1/3 innings. He will be opposed by Simeon Woods Richardson, who has pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 77 2/3 innings this season.
San Francisco Giants
Despite putting up 10 hits in the series opener, the Twins disappointed in only managing the one run due to a 1-for-11 mark with runners in scoring position (RISP). They held a .287 xBA in the game, and struck out only five times.
The Twins were due for some regression in splits with men on, but overall, their process at the plate looked sound once again. Over the last 30 days, the Twins have hit to a league-leading wRC+ of 143, slugged .497 and struck out less than any team in the league at just 16.7%.
Versus right-handed pitching, the Twins have hit to a wRC+ of 135 over the last month, which ranks second in the league. They will also see a lot of four-seamers and sliders from Birdsong, which should suit their eye fairly well given their 28.8 wFB (5th) and 2.9 wSL (8th).
Jose Miranda was a late scratch from Friday's matchup with back tightness and is considered day-to-day ahead of this matchup. The Twins will also remain without Kyle Farmer, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff.
Woods Richardson will make his 16th appearance of the season in this matchup. The 23 year-old righty has shown lots of promise in already providing five quality starts this season, but he is outperforming his 3.92 xERA and 4.58 xFIP and could regress to some extent moving forward.
Woods Richardson owns a Stuff+ rating of 86 and a Location+ rating of 106. His lesser Stuff+ rating isn't overly surprising given his 21.7% whiff rate and 20.1% strikeout rate, but he has done well to limit hard contact.
The Twins bullpen has been a strength once again this season, and enters relatively untaxed with most key arms available. Over the last 30 days, Twins relievers have pitched to an ERA of 2.99, which ranks third in baseball, and their 3.63 xFIP ranks sixth.
Minnesota Twins
Birdsong entered the big leagues with fairly high expectations. He had excellent minor league results and features three above-average pitches. Birdsong holds a Stuff+ rating of 101 and a Location+ rating of 93.
Allowing 1.9 HR/9 in a small sample of innings has tanked Birdsong's ERA — if he can clean that up, the rest of his game will look more improved. He holds an xFIP of 4.58 and an xERA 4.90, but he has the talent to improve upon those numbers over a larger sample.
The Giants offense got right with a big performance in Friday's matchup against Joe Ryan, and will provide a fairly tough matchup for Woods Richardson. Over the last 30 days, they have hit to a wRC+ of 109 against right-handed pitching, with a .428 slug rate.
Giants vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite losing on the Twins moneyline yesterday as a fairly large favorite, it still looks to be the right play on Saturday. Birdsong looks to be a better starter than his ERA suggests and superior to Woods Richardson, but that alone doesn't compensate for the other advantages Minnesota has.
The Twins offense has been in as good of form as any side in the league recently. They did a lot of things effectively in the opener, and should make it tough for Birdsong to go deep into this outing. Remaining without the red-hot bat of Jose Miranda would definitely hurt once again, but there are still more than enough bats in the lineup to generate a solid output of runs.
The Giants bullpen managed a solid outing last night, but it is a concern if Birdsong does not pitch relatively deep into this matchup.
At -106, I believe there is value betting the Twins once again, and I would bet anything better than -110.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -106 (Bet365 to -110)
