Giants vs. Tigers Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -150 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +110 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -130 |
The San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers aren't necessarily trotting out their best arms on Friday night. However, these are two of the worst hitting teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. Yes, the sample size is slightly over 110 plate appearances, but either way, neither of these teams has flaunted an ability to get on base at a clip above .270.
Given that the Giants' Sean Manaea has a track record of decency in the past, and the Tigers' Joey Wentz has a propensity to limit hard contact, this game should go under the total.
San Francisco Giants
Manaea had a tough start to the season, yielding three runs in two innings to the Chicago White Sox. He did level off a bit in his last start against the Kansas City Royals, going six strong and giving up just one earned run on three hits. The Tigers are much more in line with the Royals than they are the White Sox in terms of hitting talent. Over the past four seasons, Manaea has held an xERA from 3.43 to 4.12. His early season jitters shouldn't shake up his results too much moving forward.
The Giants hold a team wRC+ of only 49 off of lefties with a 33.9% strikeout mark and 6.6% walk rate. Their team OPS is below .540, so this says enough. Darin Ruf and LaMonte Wade are the only two Giants with a reasonable xwOBA so far. The rest of the team is abysmal.
Now, in relief, the Giants rank in the middle of the pack with a 4.46 xFIP over the course of 42 2/3 innings. They are striking out 23.6% of hitters, but allow a few too many walks. The Detroit Tigers tend to let it rip, so the walks likely won't be much of an issue for San Francisco's relievers. They also have five relievers with an xFIP under 4.00. This is more than enough pitching artillery to throw at a weak-hitting lineup.
Detroit Tigers
Wentz is the younger of these two starters. The 25-year-old had a rough outing against the Boston Red Sox, yielding five earned runs in 1 2/3 innings, but the outing before — against the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays — was a little more in line with expectations. Wentz ranks in the 48th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 49th percentile in Hard Hit Rate, even with that putrid outing against the Red Sox. He doesn't strike out many and walks some batters, so that may be an issue. The Giants have yet to put it together against southpaws, though, so Wentz should at least prevent damage with few hard-hit balls. Last year, the Giants had a team wRC+ of 106 off of lefties. This will positively regress as the season progresses, but they have been cold.
The lineup does not have enough power. The Tigers, like the Giants, rank at the bottom of the league with a 45 wRC+ off of lefties. They also have a 6.3% walk rate and a 33.3% strikeout rate.
The Detroit bullpen is a concern. Over 44 2/3 innings, they have the third-worst xFIP (5.13). That said, Jason Foley and Tyler Alexander have a sub-4.00 xFIP, so this provides a little comfort. On the other hand, Wentz needs to go at least four or five innings to weather off the middle relief from allowing too many runs.
Giants vs. Tigers Betting Pick
These starting pitchers should be enough of a mismatch to keep this game under the total — even if offenses across the league have been crushing the ball. Manaea and Wentz have the potential to keep the opposing lineups in check. Wentz may walk some people, and the Detroit bullpen has some weak spots, but neither team has a strong enough lineup to go over here. Take the under from 8.5 (-120), and play it to 8 (-120).
