One of the most popular promotions in all of the sports betting community is back once again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets. Note: It could be fewer than five games to reach the $50 ceiling if home runs increase again in 2023, which signs show they clearly are.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Braves at Marlins, 7:20 p.m. ET
Pick: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+520)
LoanDepot is not often a ballpark included in this column, but this is a great matchup for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to homer against Bryce Elder.
Elder is a soft-tossing righty who has a very mediocre sinker and fastball. The two pitches sit at just 89 and 90 mph, speeds that are always going to run into home run problems in the modern game. Chisholm has been more selective with his swing decisions and aggressiveness this season and it has resulted in more strikeouts to start. I'm of the belief that this approach change will pay off in the long run and result in more power.
Instead of swinging at bad pitches, he'll be able to barrel the ball more consistently in the future. I don't worry much about his whiff rates against someone who throws as softly as Elder does. I bet the over in the game, too, so would expect more offense than the market suggests.
Given the power in the Atlanta lineup and the home run problems from Elder, this could be a sneaky game for homers.
Blue Jays at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Matt Chapman +430
Chapman is still leading all of MLB in barrel rate with 24 barrels on 75 batted balls, a 32% clip. So long as the Blue Jays righty continues to hit the ball this hard, he should be the home run favorite for Toronto each night. He's priced behind Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer despite showing a career high barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity.
He's probably not going to keep up those absurd home run and power numbers, but it's clear that Chapman's more all fields approach is paying dividends for him.
Even if you bake in some expected regression, the market hasn't caught up to just how good Chapman has been this season. Tanner Houck throws a ton of sliders for Boston, and Chapman has always been an above average hitter against the pitch.
Twins vs. White Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Joey Gallo +350
While Chapman sits atop the sport in barrel rate for now, Joey Gallo ranks second. The all-or-nothing slugger has found a lot more success this season after a down season with the Yankees.
His supreme contact quality has returned and as a result, he's the best slugger on the board. Jake Burger and Byron Buxton are lined cheaper, but Gallo has an excellent matchup on Tuesday.
While Twins starter Joe Ryan has added a splitter to give him a third excellent pitch and really solidify his breakout season, White Sox starter Michael Kopech is trending in the opposite direction. Homers have always been an issue for the Chicago righty, and he's been barreled on a whopping 23% of batted balls in 2023. 17 of the 71 batted balls against him have been barreled, resulting in a 9.69 xERA.
Kopech is one of the worst starters in MLB so far in 2023. Even though it's cold in Chicago, there's a solid wind straight out to center field tonight that should help support homers.
Given Gallo's extreme fly ball and pull approach, he just needs to get one in the air and it will fly out.
Angels at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET
Pick: Brandon Drury +520
Drury crushed left-handed pitching and there are signs that the Angels righty is breaking out of his early season slump just in time to hit more dingers. He gets a favorable matchup with the soft tossing lefty, Steven Matz, whose Stuff+ grades out below average and isn't back to 100% as he returns from injury.
Drury had 12 homers in 2022 in 155 plate appearances against southpaws, while maintaining a .626 SLG. Drury doesn't have elite barrel rate numbers overall, but he's posted four barrels in the last week.
Now that Drury is finding his power stroke, it's time to back him at longer shot odds in a favorable hitting matchup for both lineups.
Brewers at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Ryan McMahon +500
McMahon has refined his approach to try to take the ball more out in front and unlock more pull power in 2023. It's led to more strikeouts, a career high for him. But it's also resulted in more power.
McMahon is still trying to find the right balance as a hitter, but for a home run prop, the improved barrel rate mates him an excellent candidate. McMahon had never posted a barrel rate above 11.2% in his MLB career, until the early stages of 2023. McMahon has a 19.2% barrel rate and that's resulted in a career high in xwOBA and hard hit rate.
McMahon also has consistently been an extreme home/road splits hitter throughout his time in Colorado. His OPS at home is .844, compared to just .648 on the road. Almost every Rockies' hitter has a dramatic home and away split, but few are the size of McMahon's differential.
He's also had an excellent history against fastballs, which is the overwhelming main pitch of Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta.
