One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Pick: Nick Castellanos +560
The chart below from FanGraphs shouldn't give you much optimism for Nick Castellanos right now. The Phillies All-Star is in the worst slump of his last three seasons, even after his game-tying single in the eighth last night. With that being said, Castellanos' chase-heavy approach makes him more prone to streaks than the average hitter.
Castellanos is +560 at FanDuel, though, which is a great buy-low price against back-end starter Kyle Gibson in hitter-friendly Philadelphia on Tuesday night. None of the other main books have him listed longer than +500.
His barrel rate sits right at 10%, which is in line with his career average even after his poor 2022 season. His average exit velocity on flies and liners is right around his career average, too, which is a sign to not read too much into his recent slump.
Better days are ahead for Castellanos eventually, and the +560 is the best value on the board in this game that should feature offense. If he gets below +500, I'd opt for Gunnar Henderson.
Pick: Brandon Nimmo +560
Brandon Nimmo has a career high in barrel rate. He's hit the hardest ball of his career this year, he's striking out more than ever and he's also posted his highest xSLG of the Statcast era. My colleague Sean Zerillo discussed this on Payoff Pitch on Tuesday, but Nimmo is clearly making a concerted effort to tap into more power this year.
Nimmo has the highest fly ball rate of his career and his highest pull rate since 2018. All of this improves his power outlook at the expense of some batting average.
Now, Nimmo heads from Citi Field (21st in HR park factor for lefties) to Yankee Stadium (third in HR park factor for lefties). The short porch in right field is especially beneficial for Nimmo, who is underpriced at +560 to homer. As is, Nimmo would have four more homers to add to his 15 if he played every game in the Bronx, thanks to the porch.
Pick: William Contreras +420
Andrew Abbott is allowing a lot of fly balls in his young MLB career and he hasn't been punished too badly for homers. That could change on Tuesday night as he faces Milwaukee for the third time this season. The Reds lefty has excellent breaking balls, but his fastball is quite middling and he throws it over the heart of the plate quite often.
Abbott has allowed 1.29 HR/9 at this point in his career and the projection systems think he'll have a major home run problem in his future. Even the most conservative home run projection (Steamer) has him allowing 1.42 HR/9 going forward. The BAT has him all the way up at 1.75.
Some of that is playing in Great American Ball Park, but American Family Field is a plus home run environment, too. William Contreras has six homers in 104 PA against southpaws this season and has a 1.023 OPS.
He's the best option in a light-slugging Milwaukee lineup to take Abbott deep.
Pick: Alex Bregman +470
This is one of two games where FanDuel is offering much better lines across most of the board compared to other books.
Alex Bregman has really struggled to hit left-handed pitching this season, but there's nothing in his long career splits that suggests this is anything but a blip. His HR rate for his career is much better against lefties than righties and he gets a matchup with a homer-prone lefty in Cody Bradford. In 32 MLB innings, Bradford has allowed 1.69 HR/9. The projection systems forecast him to struggle with homers.
Chas McCormick is red hot from behind the plate right now, but his odds are much worse than Bregman's. Bregman doesn't have great barrel rates, but his ability to pull fly balls and outperform his barrel rate gives him power upside.
This is especially true when he's at home and can hit into the Crawford Boxes. He takes advantage of the short porch and he can take advantage of a homer-prone starter to pull one out of the park.
Pick: Freddie Freeman +450
The board lit up for me when I saw this matchup. There are a lot of good options when you compare the prices from this game to non-FanDuel sportsbooks.
Max Muncy, Jason Heyward and James Outman are all +EV plays after the promo, but I'll take Freddie Freeman for my Dinger Tuesday pick. First, he has much less pinch-hit risk than Heyward and Outman if the Jays turn to a lefty in the bullpen. Second, Freeman has quietly posted his highest barrel rate since 2017 and increased both his fly ball rate and pull rate to his highest levels since joining the Dodgers.
I'm lower than the market on Chris Bassitt, and he's usually much worse than Julio Urias in home run suppression. It's a sneaky good hitting environment in Dodger Stadium on Tuesday and there should be plenty of offense. He's no longer than +380 at other books.
Note: As of writing, lines aren't up for Atlanta vs. Boston at Fenway. That's one of the top games on the board for expected home run output.
