One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Padres at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Jorge Soler +300
Soler is the fourth favorite in the betting market to finish the season with the league lead in home runs, behind Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge and Matt Olson. Not only does Soler have the best barrel rate of his career (19%), but the Marlins slugger is pairing that with his lowest strikeout rate since 2015. When you consider his success against left-handed pitching and his matchup against Padres lefty Ryan Weathers, even +300 is too high for him to be priced on Tuesday night.
Soler has posted a ridiculous .370/.453/.1000 slash line and a 277 wRC+ against lefties. The market has come down considerably from the +350 open, but I'd play him at +300 or better. If he drops below that threshold, Bryan De La Cruz is a solid backup option at +520.
Pick: Jorge Soler |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brewers at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET
Pick: William Contreras +410
My colleague Sean Zerillo mentioned Contreras as his homer pick on our Payoff Pitch podcast today, where we previewed much of the Tuesday betting slate. Contreras has a 132 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season and gets a matchup against one of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball. Homers can be noisy in small samples, but Yusei Kikuchi has a 1.8 HR/9 allowed in 517 big league innings. His lack of consistent command leads to him falling behind in counts and throwing right down the center of the plate too often.
Another encouraging sign for Contreras is how well he's seeing the ball against southpaws. His 14.4% walk rate shows me he's being selective, and he's still maintained a barrel rate above 10%.
Pick: William Contreras |
Phillies at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Kyle Schwarber +340
We're entering the time of the year when Schwarber begins his ascent up the home run leaderboards. Schwarber homered on Sunday and hit another ball that may have left the ballpark if not for a spectacular play from Michael Harris in center field. Schwarber is second in baseball in the rolling Statcast xwOBA window for the past 50 plate appearances.
His 10-game rolling wOBA chart paints the picture of his clear upward trend of late, and you can also see the peaks right around June in 2021 and 2022.
Pick: Kyle Schwaber |
Angels vs. White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Luis Robert Jr. (+400)
Robert is one of the many sluggers on the White Sox who has crushed left-handed pitching. Eloy Jimenez, Jake Burger and Robert are the big three in the heart of this lineup, but Robert is the best value on the board. Even though his strikeout rate is up and his hard-hit rate is down, Robert has improved his power outlook this year with a career-high 13.9% barrel rate.
His lack of plate discipline lowers his overall ceiling, but the power profile to all fields is impressive. Robert has hit five of his 13 homers to either center or right field. Robert gets a matchup with Tyler Anderson, who has seen a significant drop in his K-BB% peripherals.
Additionally, Robert has a .649 SLG and a 1.103 OPS against southpaws this season.
Pick: Luis Robert |
Guardians at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Ryan Mountcastle +470
Mountcastle has been a frequent name in this column because the market continues to price him lower than he should be given his barrel rate. His 16.5% barrel rate is in the top 8% of the league and he's got the highest rate on the Orioles by a solid margin. Given his plus raw power and his matchup with Cal Quantrill, +470 is a solid price for Mountcastle. Despite the weather conditions not being great for homers in Baltimore, the total has been bet up from eight to nine. The market is clearly expecting there to be runs scored on Tuesday.
Pick: Ryan Mountcastle |
