One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Braves at Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Kerry Carpenter +700
Spencer Strider is an elite pitcher, but he's not immune to homers, and his dip in velocity in his last few starts will make him even more vulnerable to the long ball.
Strider likes to throw in the zone and trust his dominant fastball and slider, but the average fastball velocity in his last start was down two ticks to just 95. If he's sitting that low again, there will be opportunities for the Tigers to barrel him up.
The nine best "to homer" odds at FanDuel for this game are all Braves players, even though Reese Olson has an impressive 109 Stuff+ for a rookie and projects as an above-average starter.
As a result, I'm looking further down the board for this game. Kerry Carpenter just returned from injury, he's shown he can hit fastballs (.833 SLG) and he's consistently barreled the ball when in the big leagues.
Carpenter followed up an 11.1% barrel rate last year with a 15% rate this season.
The price on him is deflated because of the opposing pitcher, but I think Strider is more vulnerable than usual right now. The Tigers don't hit righties well, but Carpenter is the best lefty slugger in the lineup.
Pick: Kerry Carpenter +700 |
Rockies at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Nolan Jones +600
Jones is the first of two potential post-hype power breakouts on the list today as he gets a friendly matchup in Boston against Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox.
Jones has always had a ton of raw power. He hit a ball 114.7 mph last week, which shows his ability. The strikeouts and swing-and-misses have consistently held him back from hitting enough at the Major League level, but he's shown enough power in his current time to excuse the 32% strikeout rate this season.
Jones has once again posted a barrel rate above 10% in his short time in the bigs. Since he cut the strikeout rate in Triple-A this season and had a .356 ISO there with 12 homers in 39 games, some believe he might finally have tweaked something to truly sustain this breakout in MLB.
If he has, +600 against replacement-level pitching is an excellent price. With low prices on most of this game's known sluggers — Rafael Devers, Ryan McMahon and Adam Duvall — I'll reach for a longer shot on Jones' power upside.
Pick: Nolan Jones +600 |
Yankees at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Francisco Alvarez +470
There were never any doubts about Francisco Alvarez's ability as a hitter when he was called up to the Mets. After some initial struggles, Alvarez has tapped into his elite raw power and become a much-needed slugger at the top of the Mets' lineup.
The Mets lack power as a group, especially without Pete Alonso, but Alvarez can help fill that void. He's posted an 11% barrel rate over 102 batted balls this season and now gets a matchup with a potentially compromised Luis Severino.
Severino dominated upon first returning from injury, but he's seen a dip in his velocity in his last two outings. The results have been very ugly. He's allowed six homers in nine innings across two starts against the Dodgers and White Sox.
He started throwing fewer fastballs last start, but the damage had been done. He won't be able to get away with that against Alvarez and his power on Tuesday night.
Pick: Francisco Alvarez +470 |
Reds at Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Will Benson +870
Benson is an excellent longshot in this matchup because he faces off against one of the worst regular starting pitchers in all of baseball in Jordan Lyles. He could also be in the midst of a power surge at the plate.
Benson is a former first-round pick, and while he's struggled to find his footing at the MLB level, he has barreled five balls in 44 batted-ball events, an 11.4% barrel rate.
There's no real track record for the market to have a great reading on Benson, but his .244 ISO in Triple-A last year is an indicator that the power exists in his profile.
He hasn't been able to hit for power at the MLB level yet, but the improved barrel rate suggests that may be changing. As a potential post-hype breakout, Benson +870 is a great longshot given Lyles mediocre stuff and lack of an overpowering fastball.
Pick: Will Benson +870 |
White Sox at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Pick: J.D. Martinez +450
Martinez has his best barrel rate this season since 2017 as part of a late-career power surge.
He has refined his approach to be more aggressive at the plate, take fewer walks and swing more often. His pull rate is the highest since 2019, his groundball rate is the lowest of his career, and he's reached a peak in his current fly ball rate.
He has seen an increase in strikeouts with his changed approach, but it's also really helped him tap into his power. Martinez is a mainstay in the Dodger lineup now, and after a big weekend in Philadelphia, his barrel rate comes in at 17.9% — the highest mark on the entire Dodgers team.
Martinez has traditionally done a ton of damage on fastballs when he's hitting well, and this season is no different. He's sure to see plenty of them from Lance Lynn on Tuesday night, and he's a great pick for Dinger Tuesday.
Pick: J.D. Martinez +450 |
