One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Ready to place your bets? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now to check out all of the Dinger Tuesday wagers, as well as bets across the entire world of sports!
Pick: Elly De La Cruz +360
Elly De La Cruz already had one of the most impressive raw power profiles in all of the minor leagues and now he's fully tapped into it.
If his FanGraphs 60-grade raw power with 70-grade future raw and game power wasn't enough, De La Cruz hit 12 homers in 38 games in Triple-A Louisville before getting called up on Tuesday. Now he moves into one of the most hitter-friendly ball parks in all of baseball in Cincinnati.
As a left-handed bat, his power upside is endless given how much the ball traditionally travels out to right field. It's difficult to homer against Tony Gonsolin, who is excellent at inducing weak contact, but it's impossible to pass up on the raw upside of De La Cruz.
Even in his MLB debut, we ride with one of the league's top prospects.
Pick: Masataka Yoshida +830
Shane Bieber is a considerably diminished pitcher in 2023 now that his strikeout rate is way down to 16% (15th percentile), his fastball Stuff+ is down to 80 and his xERA has spiked to 4.89.
Bieber now gets a matchup with a Boston offense that is top 10 in most hitting categories. Masataka Yoshida has absolutely crushed fastballs this season (+11 run value) and he's also posted a .640 SLG against heaters and .736 SLG against curveballs.
Bieber's diminished fastball makes him vulnerable to the long ball, even with non-favorable homer conditions on Tuesday,
I'm taking a shot on Yoshida at +830. His barrel rates aren't elite because he puts so many balls in play, but he's still showing plus raw power to all fields.
Ready to place your bets? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now to check out all of the Dinger Tuesday wagers, as well as bets across the entire world of sports!
Pick: Marcell Ozuna +400
I'd advise waiting until lineups are released to make sure that Marcell Ozuna is in the lineup, especially after manager Brian Snitker pulled him from the game on Sunday for not hustling out a fly ball.
I still expect Ozuna to play against a division rival given how good his bat has been in the last month. Ozuna had a historically poor start to the season, but the barrels are back and the power has returned.
It's funny to say now since most fans wanted him benched a month ago, but Ozuna is walking more, striking out less, barreling more and hitting the ball harder in 2023.
The Braves are generally the much better options in this game because of the advantageous starting pitcher matchup against Carlos Carrasco. Bryce Elder is a negative regression candidate based on his xERA and Stuff+ underlying metrics, but he's shown a real skill in the majors to suppress homers. He's allowed 0.60 HR/9 in 119.2 innings. Compare this to Carrasco, whom most systems project to allow about 1.4 HR/9.
Ozuna is the ideal price when you compare the Braves' top barrels in the lineup — Ronald Acuna Jr., Sean Murphy and Matt Olson.
Pick: Josh Jung +470
Jung is now the clear second favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. Now that he's finally healthy, he's been able to unlock more of his power profile.
Matthew Liberatore is the starter for St. Louis on Tuesday, and the lefty has just average underlying stuff numbers from both Triple-A and the majors. I'm not as high as the market on Liberatore, and Jung will be one of many tough outs for him on Tuesday.
Jung has a .359 average with a .717 SLG and 1.121 OPS against southpaws this season, and he's added an 11.5% barrel rate and improved max exit velocities this season.
There's a lot of good options in this game on both sides, because the market projects below-average fastballs for both Dane Dunning and Liberatore. That should enable both teams to tap into their power, and both lineups have 4+ guys with barrel rates over 10%.
Pick: Ryan McMahon +700
The market is pricing in that the bulk pitcher for the Giants on Tuesday will be lefty Sean Manaea. That puts McMahon in his considerably worse offensive split (.680 OPS vs. LHP in 2023), but he's likely only going to face Manaea for two at-bats.
Depending on his position in the batting order, McMahon could get the majority of his plate appearances against righties tonight and he's the best value on the board for this game because of that. McMahon spoke in spring training about trying to pull the ball more and tap into more power in 2023.
The change in approach was initially a struggle for McMahon, but he's been heating up with six barrels since May 25 and a 1.063 OPS since May 13. He's also maintained his excellent raw power from last season, improved his hard-hit rate and posted a career high barrel rate.
The power output looks clearly improved across the board, even if the strikeouts are also up as a result.
