Dodgers vs Royals Odds, Prediction & Sunday Pick
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-275 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 -125 |
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+220 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -105 |
The Dodgers lost to the Royals on Saturday night, but the biggest news of the night was that star pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto exited the game after 28 pitches due to a triceps injury. The team said after the game that he would require an IL stint, but it is mostly due to precautionary reasons.
Meanwhile, the Royals could take 2-of-3 on Sunday afternoon and leave Los Angeles with a statement series win. It will be Brady Singer vs. Tyler Glasnow, with the Dodgers being heavy favorites — as big as -275 on the moneyline (BetMGM) — across most shops.
The over/under is set to 8 (-105o / -115u), which many shops have juiced toward the under. Let's break down the Dodgers vs Royals series finale and get to my betting pick.
Los Angeles Dodgers
On paper, it is a terrific matchup between Singer and Glasnow. But, I beg to differ.
Singer enters today's start with a 3.30 ERA, but he's been fortunate thus far. He's been roughed up in his last couple of starts, so the negative regression has already begun.
Singer has a mediocre walk and strikeout rate, but the rest of his metrics are alarming. His chase and whiff rates are low, and he allows too much hard contact.
The Dodgers offense has been quiet over the last five days since their robust 15-run performance on Tuesday, so I would not expect them to remain stagnant for long. The writing is on the wall for Singer, and I would not be surprised if his recent struggles continue.
The Royals offense has their hands full today, and it is no fault to their own. Glasnow has a ridiculous 116 Ks in 86 IP, and his 3.24 ERA should be hovering around 2.50.
The good news is that they are hitting .278 against him through 36 at-bats, but I do not put too much stock into that. Salvador Perez most likely is unavaible today, which further hurts their offensive chances.
Kansas City Royals
The Dodgers offense has a chance to breakout against Singer on Sunday, and I expect them to do so. They are hitting .297 with a HR over 37 at-bats lifetime against him, and a lot is working in their favor to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Not only do they have a great matchup offensively, but I do not think enough folks are talking about how unlucky Glasnow has been this season.
I alluded to how Glasnow should have an ERA around 2.50, but he ranks above the top-90th percentile in the following categories:
- xBA
- Chase Rate
- Whiff Rate
- Strikeout Rate
For my money, he is the one of the best pitchers in baseball when he has his best stuff. Of course he is prone to allowing hard contact, but that is far and few in between.
With regression finally kicking in for Singer and good fortune looming for Glasnow, I expect Sunday afternoon to be a lopsided affair.
Dodgers vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
I normally hate paying juice on a run-line in the MLB, but I am making an exception here. I like the Dodgers to win on Sunday by 2 runs or more.
I am not worried about the bullpen blowing it for Glasnow, as they are top-3 in bullpen ERA. I also think the Dodgers offensively will do more than enough to withhold any furious late comeback by the Royals.
It's been an intriguing series in L.A., but I think the Dodgers win comfortably on Sunday.
