Dodgers vs Reds Odds & Predictions
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-145 | 9 -125o / +105u | -1.5 +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+120 | 9 -125o / +105u | +1.5 -135 |
The Dodgers face off against Hunter Greene (3.22 ERA, 58 and 2/3 IP) for the second time this week. Greene pitched well on Sunday at Dodger Stadium, as he allowed only two runs across 6 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts.
Walker Buehler (4.05 era, 13 and 1/3 IP) will make his third start of the season after returning from Tommy John on May 6. Buehler allowed zero earned runs and only three hits over six innings of work in last Saturday's matchup versus the Reds.
Dodgers vs Reds odds for Saturday have the Dodgers installed as -145 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 9 (-125o / +105u). Find my two Dodgers vs Reds predictions in my MLB betting preview below.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Whether Buehler pitches at his former level or not, chances are the Dodgers will find a way to win the division. It seems fairly clear that they will need another starter in elite form for the playoffs though, which makes Buehler's return to the mound an interesting storyline for a number of top sides.
Buehler has pitched to an xERA of 3.48, and an xFIP of 3.36 in his initial three outings. He owns a Stuff+ of 96, and his fastball averaged at 95.3 — both which are on par with his 2022 marks. Not only that, he walked just one of 21 batters last time out, and displayed strong command over his five pitch mix.
The Dodgers would love to see Buehler put together a lengthy outing in this matchup, because their bullpen has been heavily taxed over this three game losing streak.
Max Muncy should be the only regular missing from the Dodgers high powered lineup in this matchup. The Dodgers have been the second most effective team versus right-handed pitchers this season, with a wRC+ of 120. They own a sixth best BB/K of 0.46 versus RHP, and have struck out 22.7% of the time.
They feature the third lowest out of zone swing rate in MLB at 25.7%, and a whiff rate of 24.5%.
Cincinnati Reds
Greene has lived up to the expectations of his incredible arm talent thus far in 2024, as his excellent 3.22 ERA comes with a strong underlying profile. He owns an xERA of 2.66, and an xFIP of 4.02.
Greene's ERA is certainly hurt by pitching at hitter friendly Great American Ballpark half the time, as he features drastically differing home and road splits. In 34 and 1/3 innings at home, Greene owns a 4.19 ERA compared to a stellar 1.85 ERA on the road. He has allowed a .342 OBP at home and a .382 slug-rate, while his WHIP spikes to 1.37 at home, compared to it's mark of 0.86 on the road.
As you would expect, the 24 year old flamethrower's arsenal rates out very well per FanGraphs pitching model. He owns a Stuff+ of 127 with all four of his pitches rating far better than average.
The Reds own an offensive wRC+ of 90 over the last 14 days, and an OPS of just .676.
Dodgers vs Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a highly intriguing pitching matchup for several reasons. Whether or not Buehler trends towards his former dominance is a huge storyline surrounding the World Series favorite Dodgers. He was excellent last time out, and will look to follow that up in a second consecutive start versus the Reds.
Greene is in a tough spot here, and it will be highly impressive if he can manage a quality outing once again. He dominated the Dodgers' high powered lineup Sunday at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. Now, the Dodgers get their second look at Greene in less than a week in baseball's fourth most hitter friendly ballpark.
The forecast at first pitch is calling for 80 degree temperatures with winds blowing out to center field.
Greene has been truly excellent, and the Reds offense looks pretty anemic. Still, in batter friendly conditions at Great American Ballpark this total has the potential to go over.
And while Greene would love to rack up K's on a day where balls are going to carry, his strikeout prop of 6.5 looks a little inflated. Maybe part of the reason why is because he just put up 8 K's last time out versus the Dodgers. Either way, it seems unlikely he will average as many K's in this matchup.
The Dodgers feature far better than average plate discipline versus right-handed pitchers. They should also hit for a better average than most sides against Greene, and wear him down prior to striking out too much. The fact that they just saw Greene on Sunday could also be beneficial.
Greene has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in just three of his ten starts this season, which already makes the under intriguing at -120. If you factor in the idea that the Dodgers still have to be viewed as a tougher than average target for K's, it seems clear that this number is inflated.
