The Texas Rangers rebounded nicely on Wednesday evening after being embarrassed by the Dodgers, 15-2, on Tuesday.
The Rangers look to take the series in LA by sending Michael Lorenzen to the mound.
The Dodgers want to rebound, but they will use their bullpen to get through nine frames. Michael Grove will act as an opener, and he will be followed by whomever Dave Roberts decides to deploy.
The Dodgers have the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball, which is why the market has them -200 on the ML.
I cooked up a nice four-leg correlated SGP that pays out about 5-to-1. I cashed an SGP last week in the Mariners vs A's game, so let's stay hot.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Dodgers vs Rangers Same Game Parlay: Thursday
- Over 0.5 Runs In 1st Inning (-125)
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-118)
Parlay Odds: +523 (FanDuel)
Over 0.5 Runs In 1st Inning (-125)
Michael Grove has been much sharper as a relief pitcher as opposed to a starter, so the reason for taking the over in the first inning has little to do with him.
It would be glorious to start the SGP with a leadoff homerun by Marcus Semien, but I am all about fading Michael Lorenzen tonight.
First, Lorenzen is a walking regression candidate. He enters tonight's start with a 3.05 ERA, but his expected ERA is nearly 5.00.
However, oddly enough, Lorenzen has been a better pitcher as the game goes along. Opposing hitters are batting .244 the first time through the order, whereas that average dips tremendously the second and third time through.
It'd be a bonus if the Rangers can scrap a run across early in the first, but I expect the Dodgers to make Lorenzen pay right from the jump.
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Ohtani clubbed a homer last night in the loss, but I love the matchup for him today.
He is 2-for-6 lifetime against Lorenzen, but I am not worried about the little familiarity.
Ohtani has clubbed 14 of his 17 dingers against right-handed pitching, hitting .321 with a 1.089 OPS. We are running out of words to describe how incredible he is.
Even if Ohtani doesn't get the job done against Lorenzen, he will have ample opportunity against the Rangers' bottom-five bullpen.
There's no reason to overthink things here.
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Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
We'll continue fading Lorenzen by adding Mookie Betts into the mix.
Betts has never faced Lorenzen, but I know he loves to be aggressive early in the count.
Mookie's aggressiveness gives him a big edge tonight because of how poorly Lorenzen pitches early in starts. The numbers are already bad, but just wait until the regression begins to kick in.
Betts has clubbed eight of his 10 longballs against right-handed pitching and is starting to heat up over the last week. He went into a bit of a cold spell but is currently on a six-game hitting streak.
A classic Betts leadoff homer would not only clinch our first inning over but also his total bases prop for the game. If the Dodgers are going to beat up Lorenzen, it all starts with Betts and Ohtani.
As I alluded to with Shohei, if Betts does not get the job done against Lorenzen, the Rangers pen is a nice safety net in our back pocket.
I like Mookie to join in on fun with his teammate Shohei.
Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-118)
What a surprise, I'm closing out the SGP by taking the Dodgers team total over.
Let's face it, Lorenzen is not a 3.00 ERA pitcher and never will be.
He is striking out seven batters per nine innings, but his walk rate is outrageously high (nearly five per nine). He's stranding 84% of runners — also alarmingly high — appearing to be getting very lucky with ducks on the pond.
It's only a matter of time before a big blowup game occurs, and I think the market suggests that tonight could be the one. The total is 8.5 for the full game, but because of how dominant the Dodgers' pen has been, I would much rather target the Dodgers' offense.
They did rack up 15 runs just two games ago, but last night was a reality check. I expect a bounce-back effort from the offense and they should take advantage of the Lorenzen regression and horrific bullpen.
