Dodgers vs Marlins Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-250 | 9 +100o / -120u | -1.5 -122 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+200 | 9 +100o / -120u | +1.5 +102 |
Let's dive into the Dodgers vs. Marlins odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, May 8.
After a somewhat uneven start to the season for the Dodgers, baseball's superteam is now firing on all cylinders. They enter Wednesday's series finale against the Marlins on a six-game winning streak, and winners of 13 of their last 15 contests.
Taking the hill for the Dodgers on Wednesday is Gavin Stone (4.07 ERA, 31.0 IP), who is looking to build on back-to-back dominant outings. He will face off against the Marlins' Ryan Weathers (4.54 ERA, 35 2/3 IP), who has pitched to an ERA of 5.17 over his last three starts.
Dodgers vs Marlins odds for Wednesday have the Dodgers installed as heavy -270 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 9. You can find my Dodgers vs Marlins prediction on the run line in my MLB betting preview below.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Is it possible the Dodgers lineup exceeds lofty preseason projections? With Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani fighting neck-and-neck for N.L. MVP and the rest of the lineup in strong form, it looks entirely possible.
The Dodgers own the top wRC+ in MLB at 134 and they have scored 5.54 runs per game. Their xSLG of .473 ranks first by a wide margin, as does their .363 xwOBA.
Over the last 14 games, their form at the plate has actually improved, as they have a wRC+ of 155 over that span. They own an absurd BB/K ratio of 0.73, and a 35.7% hard-hit rate in that span.
Gavin Stone enters this matchup in good form — he's allowed only two earned runs over his last 13 innings against the Braves and Blue Jays. He owns a 4.05 xERA over the entirety of the season, with an xFIP of 4.53. He holds a Stuff+ of 94 and a Location+ of 100.
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Miami Marlins
Things have come off the rails quickly for the Marlins, who are 10-28 and have a staggering run differential of -77 — only the Rockies (-82) and White Sox (-92) are worse.
The Fish have the third-worst wRC+ in baseball at just 78, and their offensive upside is even worse now with Luis Arraez traded away to the Padres. They own the league's sixth-worst xwOBA at .305.
Fielding has also been a significant concern for the Marlins — they have a Defensive Runs Saved mark of -20 and their -21 outfield Outs Above Average is the worst in MLB by a wife margin.
Despite the Miami's suspect fielding, Ryan Weathers has found a way to overachieve; he has an ERA of 4.58 but an xERA of 5.09. His xFIP is 4.81 and his K/BB is just 2.07. He has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 98 and Location+ mark of 95.
Hitters have chased just 19% of Weathers' breaking balls down in the zone this season, and a chase rate of only 15% when he is behind in the count. He owns a chase rate of only 24.4% overall, which is particularly concerning giving the way he's been hit when pitching inside the zone.
Dodgers vs. Marlins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Dodgers offense is beginning to look historically dominant, and it feels like we could begin to see some absurd betting numbers on their games in upcoming weeks. Even at -275 on the moneyline, I do not believe L.A. is a big enough favorite on Wednesday against Miami.
Stone should prove to be superior to Weathers this season by some margin. The 25-year-old is supported by L.A.'s vastly superior offenses and defense, not to mention a well-rested bullpen.
Keep your eye out for the Dodgers lineup on Wednesday morning because it is possible some key pieces are given off-days. If that is not the case though, there is value in backing Los Angeles to cover the run line at -125, and this also makes a good time to sprinkle in some bets on alt lines (-3.5 or -4.5) as well.
