Dodgers vs Giants Odds, Pick
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | -1.5 +118 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | +1.5 -142 |
The Dodgers will look to continue their dominance over the Giants in Wednesday's series finale.
Logan Webb (3.38 ERA, 53 1/3 IP) will start for San Francisco. Webb has struggled against the Dodgers in his career, including in his initial matchup with them this season in which he allowed five earned runs while recording just 11 outs.
It will be a bullpen day for the Dodgers, who will likely look toward Ryan Yarbrough (2.56 ERA, 31 2/3 IP) to handle the early innings.
Where does the betting value lie in this one? Let's make a Dodgers vs. Giants pick as we look at the MLB odds for Wednesday, May 15.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has won 18 of its last 22 matchups while averaging 5.8 runs per game. It owns an absurd +79 run differential in that span.
The Dodgers offense has put up an OPS of .792 this season, which paces baseball by a wide margin, as does their offensive wRC+ of 127. They also lead MLB in terms of xSLG rate (.464), xwOBA (.355) and wRC+ against right-handed (128).
Oddsmakers are well aware of how absurdly good this Dodgers lineup is right now. Even still, those who have been consistently playing Dodgers run lines since mid-April have been thoroughly rewarded.
It should also be noted how well Mookie Betts has played against Webb, as he owns a .346 average in 26 at-bats.
Logan Webb on Mookie Betts:
“He knows he owns me… but I love facing him” pic.twitter.com/SFklIb0bsV
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 10, 2024
While Betts' dominance over Webb is getting a lot of attention, a lot of Dodgers have given Webb fits in recent years. Betts has a 1.024 OPS in 26 ABs against Webb, while Freddie Freeman owns a 1.122 OPS in 29 ABs.
Freeman has slugged .511 in 52 PAs since the start of May and has slugged .568 against right-handed pitching this season.
Since the start of 2022, his .334 average against righties is second only to Luis Arraez. He has also been the most effective batter in the league against changeups with a .438 batting average since the start of 2023.
Dave Roberts will likely start with Yarbough here, hoping he can handle three or four innings. Yarbrough owns a 3.08 xERA and 4.87 xFIP this season, with a Pitching+ rating of 95.
San Francisco Giants
Webb bounced back from two ugly outings last time out against the Reds, as he threw seven innings and allowed only two earned runs. Still, he was hit hard 71% of the time and allowed an xBA of .305.
Webb's underlying results have taken a step backward in 2024. He has allowed an xFIP of 3.17 and an xERA of 4.77. He's also on pace for the lowest K/9 rate of his career at 7.07 per nine innings.
He has a strike rate of just 54% when ahead in the count this season. Batters aren't chasing his off-speed stuff as consistently as in years past when he was at his best.
The Giants are also going through a horrid stretch of injuries at the time being across all positions. Michael Conforto went on the IL on Monday, while Jung Hoo Lee is set to be added to the list with a dislocated shoulder.
San Francisco has hit to a wRC+ of 91 over the last 30 days and own an xSLG rate of .389.
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Dodgers vs Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
The majority of the Dodgers' key batters have seen a ton of Webb in their careers, and most of them own excellent splits against him thus far. As expected, the L.A. lineup is well on its way to being a historically productive unit.
Backing Betts to record over 1.5 total bases will be a popular play today given his red-hot form and strong history against Webb.
However, Freeman has been even more successful against Webb and owns excellent splits against pitchers with comparable profiles. He's also trending into top form at the plate.
I believe there's a little more value in backing Freeman to go over 1.5 total bases at a longer number of -105.
While the Giants' lineup looks pretty horrific, they get a good matchup here against Yarbrough and the Dodgers' bullpen. Oracle Park is also expected to feature 10-11 MPH winds blowing out to left-center for this game.
A total of 7.5 looks a little low given this matchup and the ballpark conditions. Bet over 7.5 at anything better than -130.
