Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +102 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -122 |
Zac Gallen returned in dominant fashion on Friday, as he threw six shutout innings versus the Athletics and lowered his ERA to 2.83. He gets a much tougher matchup Thursday as he will take on a red-hot Dodgers offense and Landon Knack.
Knack has been in outstanding form in his own right, and is making the most of his opportunity in the rotation with a 2.08 ERA this season. Let's get to my Dodgers vs Diamondbacks pick for Thursday, July 4 — which features a player prop prediction for Arizona pitcher Zac Gallen.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' offense also enters this matchup in strong form, as they have hit to a wRC+ of 122 over the last 30 days, and a wRC+ of 125 versus RHP in that span. In the span since Mookie Betts injury, they have hit to a wRC+ of 126 versus RHP, with an OPS of .796, and a third best BB/K ratio.
Freddie Freeman has hit to a wRC+ of 184 over the last 30 days, with an OPS of 1.020. Still, those numbers pale in comparison to Shohei Ohtani's 216 wRC+ and 1.163 OPS.
Due to a number of key pitchers going down with injury Landon Knack has received another opportunity to join the starting rotation, and he is making the most of it once again. Knack has allowed just one earned run in two starts since being recalled on June 21.
Knack has pitched to an xERA of 3.53 this season, with an xFIP of 4.31. His arsenal rates out well, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 102, including a 118 rating on his slider in particular. He has pitched to a Location+ rating of 99.
This will be Knack's second matchup versus the Diamondbacks of the season. He faced them on April 30th in Arizona, and allowed four hits and one earned run in five innings of work.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Surprisingly poor pitching has been a huge causation of the Diamondbacks underachieving record, as they hold a team ERA of 4.66 this season. Gallen's return to the rotation will hopefully help propel Arizona into a wild card spot in the season's back half, and he's likely due to receive better run support given the way the Diamondbacks offense has found its form of late.
Over the last 30 days, the Diamondbacks own a wRC+ of 122, and an wOBA of .342. They have been particularly tough on right-handed pitching over that sample, as they hold a wRC+ of 128, which ranks third in that span. Arizona has struck-out just 17.9% of the time in that span against RHP, and holds a 0.54 BB/K ratio.
Gallen has pitched to a 3.73 xERA and 3.22 xFIP in 63 and 2/3 innings of work this season. His strand-rate and HR/FB% are both slightly better than his career average, which has helped power his strong ERA.
Gallen's Stuff+ rating is down to 99 compared to last season's mark of 106. His Location+ rating is also down to 99, compared to last season's mark of 104.
Since last season, Gallen has allowed an average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH, which is tied for the highest mark of any starter to throw 95 or more innings.
Gallen has pitched to worse splits on the road in particular so far this season, as he holds a WHIP of 1.22 in 27 innings with an ERA of 4.33. He also holds a 4.20 FIP on the road compared to a mark of 2.20 at home.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Dodgers Stadium should feature hitter friendly conditions tonight, with 82 degree temperatures and 8-9 winds blowing out to center field projected for first pitch.
Backing the game total to go over looks reasonable given the form of these offenses and will be a popular play, but an over-under of 8.5 for a game between two solid pitchers probably compensates for the likelihood of a higher scoring affair.
My favorite play from this matchup lies in a similar mindset though, which is Gallen to allow more than two earned runs.
Gallen hasn't been quite as solid as his overall numbers suggest, and the Dodgers should hit him well in this spot. He will always receive a long leash if things get dicey later in the matchup, and I think this prop should be more juiced than the current line of -130.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130, bet365)
